The Lower Monterey and Santos shales in California have an estimated 15 Bbbl of undeveloped, technically recoverable shale oil resources in the San Joaquin and Los Angeles basins. The shale play is at depths of 2,439 m to 4,268 m (8,000 ft to 14,000 ft), and thicknesses range from 305 m to 915 m (1,000 ft to 3,000 ft), according to Intek Inc.

The shale play stretches across much of the San Joaquin Valley under some of the most prolific farmland in the country – or what once was prolific farmland. California is in the third year of a major drought. A lot of farmers have handfuls of dust rather than crops.

It won’t get any better in 2014. The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada was at 13% of normal in late January. The snowmelt is a major source of water for irrigating farmland and providing water for thirsty Californians.

The oil and gas industry wants to tap the Monterey shale, but to do so would require large amounts of water for hydraulically fracturing horizontal wells. The battle lines are drawn.

Deborah Gordon and Katherine Garner wrote a white paper on “Mapping California’s Oil-Water Risks” for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Gordon, senior associate, Energy and Climate Program for the endowment, pointed out that in 2013 California suffered its driest year since record-keeping began in 1849.

There is concern that aquifers will be contaminated by oil and gas operations. The state’s Central Valley aquifer system contains freshwater down to 915 m and other aquifers to 2,744 m (9,000 ft). As Gordon told E&P, even the formations with brine water need to be protected from further contamination, which would preclude using these formations for saltwater disposal.

“Today there is not a way to use that water economically,” she said. “It is not potable today, but we don’t want to further contaminate it. We may need that water in the future. The technology could change to produce these resources.”

You may get the feeling I am harping on water usage by the oil and gas industry. I am. The industry needs to be a source of water, not a drain on the system. How bad can the water shortage get? Mono Lake’s low water level has uncovered tree stumps that were growing when water levels previously remained low for a very long time. Tree rings indicate a drought as long as 150 years.

As several news outlets have noted, the drought has resulted in low stream flow, which is having a major negative impact on salmon fisheries in the state.
It may be a very long time before the Monterey shale is developed. Pray for rain.

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