We have kept our heads down as the debate about peak oil has raged around us. That is because there are a lot of questions that are unanswered and that we certainly don't have the answer to. For example, when will peak oil happen? Does it matter when peak oil happens? Just exactly what comprises peak oil - is unconventional productive potential taken into account?
Peak oil is another of those sticky debates with no apparent end point. First, nobody knows when peak oil will happen, especially if unconventional potential is taken into account. Second, it may or may not matter, depending on the speed of alternative energy development. Finally, no one has precisely defined the consequences of the post-peak oil era. Will it be financially uncomfortable, economically disastrous or the end of civilization as we know it? So, here at Hart, we will let the debate rage whilst taking care not to take sides until the waters clear considerably.
That's not so of peak larceny. Whilst we have not identified the exact time of peak larceny we do know a good deal more about it than peak oil. In fact, I get two to three examples a week, and the number is growing. It generally goes something like this:
The Mellow Pear and Rising Moon Production Company (MRRM, green sheet listed on the Bayoon Poultry Futures Exchange) is pleased to announce preliminary results from its L.G. Walthenblatther prospect in central Antarctica. Based on tooth samples from a 2-year old, dead baboon found on location, Central Testing and Cosmetics in Racine, Wis., has identified the presence of hydrocarbons in three potential oil producing zones on the property. A comprehensive drilling plan has been developed for the project. MRRM is in the process of raising capital to undertake the major drilling initiative.
According to MRRM chief executive officer, W.E. Skinnum, "The Walthen-blatther prospect is the most important find in Antarctica in many years. Production from the various zones could equal 3 trillion b/d." Ace Fleecer, chief analyst for Central Testing and Cosmetics, said, "The Walthenblatther samples are the richest I have ever seen in an on-location decayed baboon, clearly indicating the great oil production potential for the property."
This is generally followed by the standard disclaimer, never read, that one should not put much store in the statements above.
Three days later, the press release arrives noting that further tests have been conducted on the dead baboon and an aggressive 1-D surface seismic is almost complete. Initial results indicate that potential was grossly understated.
Two days later an announcement arrives stating that sufficient funds have been raised and that the initial drilling program will begin in a week, following a highly successful surface seismic campaign in which nafarlious anomalies in the fractured sequestoscene indicate untold potential. And there goes a few poor folks life savings.
This, while imaginary, is the scenario played out every day as we move toward peak larceny. With oil prices at near all-time highs, the temptation to scam is just too great, the pool of ruthless scam artists just too large, and the lure of easy money just to potent. It's a pity, and another bruise on the industry's image.

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