?As moviegoers will recall, the rare collision of two massive weather systems in the North Atlantic Ocean formed the premise of a thrilling tale titled, “The Perfect Storm.” Although each meteorological system was dangerous, it was the collision of the systems that caused the problem and led to its terrible result.

Such a perfect storm could be brewing in the oil and gas industry. There is little excess capacity anywhere in the world, including Saudi Arabia, to mitigate a downspike in production; and demand growth, despite the best efforts of conservationists and engineers developing more energy-efficient machines, continues apace.

The de facto unofficial moratorium on offshore drilling will create a trough in the production wave

that could last for several years. The best offshore fields average approximately 10 years between discovery and first oil, and cutting off drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and the Beaufort Sea undoubtedly will create such a trough, although its effects might not be apparent for some time. Just like a tsunami, the production ripple eventually will hit the market.

It is unreasonable to think that curtailing offshore drilling for an extended period will not have a downstream effect. Even if the industry, once authorized, could mitigate the shortage with an all-out effort to catch up, that would, in itself, create the kind of unsafe atmosphere legislators are trying to prevent. Shortcuts to make up time can backfire, ultimately costing more time and money.

The result will be a price spike as the “haves” exploit their temporary advantage against the “have-nots.” The spike will be particularly sharp and severe because the haves lack the excess capacity to boost production volume during the crisis, and the only recourse is jacking up the price on their current production.

Anyone watching the news cannot but wonder about the potential extent and effect of the violence and civil unrest that is sweeping the Middle East. Today it is Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, but who will be swept into the whirlpool tomorrow? Elsewhere, simmering issues continue to plague production in Nigeria and Venezuela.

Throughout history, the world has experienced numerable disasters where mankind has had a role. The sinking of the Titanic did not put an end to sea travel, the horrific disaster at Chernobyl did not result in abandonment of nuclear power generation, and even the conflagration that consumed the oil wells of Kuwait was dealt with forthrightly. The affected industries simply redoubled their efforts to improve the process or develop safer, more secure alternatives.

So why does the US not recognize that for more than 150 years the oil and gas industry has had a remarkable history of safe and environmentally responsible operations with a minimum of accidents? Put the Macondo incident in its proper perspective and engineer safeguards to prevent recurrence, but at the same time do not cut off the lifeblood of America. Do not create a market tsunami that will have the effect of a perfect storm by deliberately creating a shortage in a critical commodity at a time when the US can least afford to experience one.

The industry has proven time and again that it has the technology, equipment, and know-how to drill and produce deepwater energy assets safely. What happened at Macondo was, by all accounts, a human failure, and as such was entirely preventable. Look at the procedures that precipitated the Macondo disaster, correct them and the conditions that fostered them, and the problem should not recur.

In the meantime, restore drilling and production. There is a perfect storm brewing out there. America should act now if it does not want to commit energy suicide.

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