Production from West Africa has been relatively flat until recently, but the region will capitalize on large offshore discoveries and reserves yet to be found that will increase production 75% by 2009 and probably maintain that level for at least 6 more years.

This year marks a turning point in production for the area after years of successful exploration with few new projects brought onstream, said Louise Geddes, manager of the upstream research team with Wood Mackenzie, describing a report called "Oil Production Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa."

The largest project brought online to date was ExxonMobil's Kizomba A off Angola, and it still has Kizomba B, C and D in the planning stages. Total brought Girassol on production on Block 17 off Angola, and it still has Dalia and a host of smaller fields to put into production on the same block, probably in 2007. ChevronTexaco will bring Lobito online and BP will start producing from its Greater Plutonio fields on Block 18 offshore Angola.

Nigeria also is primed for a big move with Shell's Bonga and Bonga Southwest ramping up. ExxonMobil's Erha is due onstream next year. By 2007, ChevronTexaco's Agbami and Total's Akpo should start flowing oil.

With African countries now demanding simultaneous development of gas from these fields, gas production will surge as well.

Putting the production picture in perspective, Senior Analyst Stewart Williams said Nigeria is the giant in this part of the oilpatch with 22 billion bbl of liquids produced to date, another 25 billion bbl onstream or being developed by 2009 and another 5 billion bbl likely to be developed after that time.
Angola has the most growth potential, with approximately 4 billion bbl produced, 10 billion bbl under development and another 4 billion bbl likely to be developed.

Catriona Boggon, Wood Mackenzie analyst, looked at the smaller countries, starting with Gabon, which holds the next largest position. It has produced 3 billion bbl, is developing another 750 million bbl and has another 500 million bbl in the likely category. It has no deepwater discoveries yet but had four potentially commercial shallower discoveries this year. Next in line in size are the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cameroon, Chad and Mauritania. Chad boasts a lot of potential from unexplored areas.
Australia's Woodside Petroleum has been active offshore Mauritania with its Chinguetti (130 million bbl) and Tiof (300 million bbl) fields and the more recent Tivet-1 discovery that could be tied back to Chinguetti.

Looking to the future, Williams said West Africa produced 4.1 million bbl of liquids in 2003 and should reach 7.1 million bbl by 2009. Among the countries, probably only Nigeria will show growth from onshore properties. Peak production for Nigeria should reach 3.6 million b/d by 2011. That's a lower number than the government projection of 4 million b/d by 2010, but Nigeria faces project delays from problems with joint-venture funding, gas production requirements, civil unrest and other project delays. OPEC quotas may also stifle development.

All that production will require substantial amounts of cash, Williams said. Onshore spending probably will remain in the area of US $2.5 billion a year through 2010, but shalllowwater spending probably peaked at about $3 billion last year and will decline slowly to approximately $1.5 billion by the end of the decade.

The big money will go into deep water as spending rises from $4.6 billion this year to $10 billion in 2005 and declines to about $1.5 billion in 2010 on fields under development and likely to be developed, Williams said.

He estimated total spending for West Africa - onshore and offshore - from less than $6 billion in 2000 to a peak of more than $13 billion in 2006.

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