With little sign that the oil price will change substantially over the next couple of years while the world continues to pump too much oil and gas, the ramifications are suddenly not so far off.

With a further wave of production coming from expanded offshore projects like Lula, Kashagan, Tsimin-Xux and South Pars sanctioned before the downturn likely to add 1.8 MMbbl/d of oil to existing global supplies during 2017, lower prices look set to be with us until 2018 at least.

With total world production forecast to reach 96.79 MMbbl/d and world consumption forecast to hit 96.78 MMbbl/d, the industry will need to wade through this additional wave of offshore oil supply before demand-supply equilibrium can emerge.

But if it does emerge, it could then quickly start sliding the other way.

Steve Robertson of analysts Douglas-Westwood gave a “heads-up” in a briefing that the focus by E&P companies on maintaining dividends and free cash flow could create longer term supply issues.

“I think the problem in the long term from this lack of investment is going to be the impact on oil production toward the end of the decade,” he said. “The excess oil supply will erode as a function of decline in existing fields and oil demand growth. We’re not going to have projects in the pipeline to overcome production decline at the end of the decade.”

And so we may face a situation that seems laughable today. “A new supply crunch could be looming as we approach 2020,” Robertson said.

At that point we will hit a period where operators will need to put their foot to the floor to fill that impending gap between demand and supply. This could spark a veritable project bonanza in which companies will have to crank up their exploration and development activity. That period also might coincide with a return to higher oil prices, although they’re not likely to be anywhere near $100/bbl.

My big concern, however, is this: There are an estimated 350,000 fewer positions out there to help meet any demand upturn—a lot of “gray hairs” took their chance to take well-earned retirement, while many young professionals that were encouraged to join saw their fledgling careers cut off at the knees. There’s also plenty of equipment standing idle and deteriorating.

The industry has lost much during this downturn. Some will say it’s leaner and fitter, but the cuts have been almost to the bone. If it fails to prepare itself in terms of planning sufficient resources to handle this impending activity upturn, it’s not a question of whether it is willing to meet the challenge but whether it is able.

Contact the author, Mark Thomas, at mthomas@hartenergy.com.

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