Although assessments from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the United States Geological Society (USGS) on international shale gas reserves should be great motivation for countries to quickly develop cheaper, more reliable and more abundant supplies, it just hasn’t happened.

A Raymond James Global Research report indicates that “the delays are a function of regulatory/political hurdles, constraints in availability of rigs and skilled labor, along with general inertia.”

According to a USGS world petroleum assessment, “The energy struggle (outside of the U.S.) is economic, political, and technological, and is waged on the field of uneven geologic distribution of energy resources. The ongoing struggle for energy has been manifested in a military conflict in the Middle East, political struggles in the Former Soviet Union, and financial struggles throughout the world.”

The Raymond James report quoted a 2011 EIA assessment that indicated that there is 5,760 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas, excluding the U.S., Russia and most of the Middle East. Almost every country in Europe is a net gas importer “with historically high dependence on Russian supply and, increasingly, liquefied natural gas from overseas,” yet there is an estimated 639 trillion cubic feet in Europe.

Most major oil companies and numerous exploration and production companies have acreage in Europe and China, and more recently Argentina and South Africa. “We think the next two years will be more eventful than the past two, but don’t count any of these chickens until they’re hatched,” the report said.

Bans on unconventional techniques make headlines, but it is not the sole source of underdevelopment:

  • There are only 70 onshore rigs in Europe (vs. more than 1,700 in the U.S.)
  • Eighteen European countries have permitted some unconventional activity; however, acreage of interest is almost always near a population center.
  • Pre-development (i.e., seismic) is way behind when compared with the U.S.

The report also provided some country-by-country status and activity.

Europe

France, Spain: France has potentially the largest shale gas resource (180 trillion cubic feet estimated) but a ban was enacted in 2011.

In Spain, estimates indicate 72 trillion cubic feet is available and about 200 wells have been drilled in the north. The government is concerned that it cannot stop a nationwide ban.

Poland: Silurian shale has received the most attention and drilling results haven’t been overwhelming with only 10 of the 30 wells fractured. A recent study has reduced the estimated shale gas volume by a factor of ten, and infrastructure and proposed taxes would increase prices.

Ukraine, Romania: Shell has a deal for Ukrainian development but results aren’t expected until 2015. A Chevron deal has met resistance from “local opposition parties,” and no timelines have been announced.

Chevron has interests in the Romania’s Bariad block but the first exploration well won’t happen until late 2013.

U.K.: The government is supportive of development. A geological survey from 2011 indicates that there is 5.3 trillion cubic feet of reserves. One active company, Cuadrilla Resources, recently announced that commercialization is not realistic until at least 2015.

China

China has more estimated reserves than the U.S. Its dependence on coal, an “old fashioned nationalism” for coal, a lack of shale technology and infrastructure and bureaucracy will make shale gas development slow.

Argentina, South Africa

Argentina has an estimated 774 trillion cubic feet of gas. Repsol YPF’s investments were nationalized by the state in 2012, making any potential partners wary. However, the country’s central bank recently created a $2 billion fund for Vaca Muerta development.

South Africa, with great potential, does not have significant gas market demand and currently imports mostly from Mozambique. Shell, a major acreage holder, indicated that “commercialization is not realistic until 2020.”

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