More than $20 billion will be spent to bring natural gas from the Mackenzie Delta region of Canada and the North Slope of the U.S. to market during the next dozen years, predicts a study recently released by Ziff Energy Group. The Calgary-based consulting firm says the Northern gas projects will affect the entire North American gas industry, and will moderate continental gas prices after 2011. According to Ziff, volumes of 1 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day are anticipated to flow from the Mackenzie Delta gas fields by November 2010. Adding to that, the massive Alaska project will bring 2.3 Bcf per day to market from the North Slope beginning in 2014. That supply will grow by 1.1 Bcf per day in 2016, and another 1.1 Bcf in 2017. The Alaska project will be an important source of new domestic gas for consumers. That should help offset increasing demand within Canada for its own gas. The slow decline in Western Canada's gas production, coupled with a strong demand growth in the same region, will mean that the volumes of gas available for downstream markets will shrink. Ziff predicts that a new pipeline carrying gas south and east of Alberta will not be needed. Surprisingly, the study indicated that the pipeline toll on the Alaska line is likely to be lower than that on the Mackenzie Delta line, as the massive size of the Alaska line should offset its much greater length. As North American gas demand continues to grow, pressures for more continental energy supplies mount, and pledges for liquefied natural gas terminals rise to billions of dollars, Northern gas development is a certainty. Progress on the projects has been frustratingly slow, however. The future of Northern gas is the single biggest unknown in the North American market, says Ziff.

Comments