Former secretary of state James Baker expects Iraq, Arab-Israeli relations, and Iran and North Korea's nuclear-weapon potential to be the top three foreign-policy issues of the new Bush administration. Baker spoke at Rice University in Houston recently. In Iraq, a hasty coalition departure will embolden terrorists there and elsewhere. "To cut and run is not an option," he said. Progress has been slower than many had hoped, and it will continue to be slow. "Even in the best of circumstances, the new Iraqi government will remain vulnerable to internal [fighting] and external meddling." A protracted U.S. military presence is unavoidable, and he expects a civil war eventually, he said. As for Arab-Israeli relations, Palestinians appear to be eager to embrace democracy, and they must crack down on terrorist groups, Baker said. On nuclear weaponry in Iran and North Korea, "it is really hard to overestimate the importance of addressing this challenge," he said. While the weapons may have only regional range, there will be tremendous pressure on neighboring countries to develop their own nuclear power, which would result in regional destabilization. The five-party talks on North Korea may resume this spring. While diplomacy can be effective, "we have to also be prepared to use sticks...I don't think there are satisfying military solutions to these problems but you never take the military option off the table." He added that Iran and North Korea are known for cat-and-mouse games. "Neither country can be trusted at its word." Overall, isolationism is not an option today, so expect continued U.S. involvement in affairs abroad. "There is absolutely no way we or any other country can escape the world," he said. -Nissa Darbonne

Comments