Oil and gas operators in the Bakken remain resilient despite losing their “coolness factor” to the Permian Basin, a recent report from Seaport Global Securities LLC said.

“Bakken well productivity still reigns supreme based on our data shown today,” Seaport analysts Mike Kelly and Patrick Sun wrote in the report published July 11.

In the report, Kelly and Sun analyzed 2018 EURs for Bakken operators while also gauging trends in oil EURs from between 2016 and 2018 to determine which players have made gains and which have held steady or sustained losses in well productivity. 

According to their analysis, the Bakken operators with the three highest oil EURs in 2018 included:

• Marathon Oil Corp. at 1.101 million barrels of oil;
• WPX Energy Inc. at 1.092 million barrels of oil; and
• Continental Resources Inc. with 918,000 barrels of oil.

Adjusted for lateral length, the highest 2018 EURs in the Bakken were turned in by WPX at 115,000 barrels of oil per/1,000 ft. Behind WPX was Marathon at 107,000 barrels of oil per 1,000 ft. and EOG Resources Inc. at 105,000 barrels of oil per 1,000 ft.

When the Seaport analysts compared the Bakken EUR stats to those of operators in Permian sub-basins—the Midland and Delaware—Bakken EURs came out on top.

When unadjusted for lateral lengths, Bakken operators averaged 823,000 barrels of oil EURs, which lands them at 21% and 57% better than their Midland and Delaware cousins, respectively.

Adjusted for lateral lengths, the Bakken EURs are still 15% higher than the Midland wells but 5% lower than the Delaware Basin. The analysts said lateral lengths for Delaware wells are increasing but are currently still an average of 43% shorter than Bakken laterals.

Still, the analysts noted that the average Bakken name today trades at 4.2x 2019 estimated EBITDA. In comparison, Permian Basin E&P companies garner 5.4x estimated EBITDA.

Marathon and EOG also topped the most improved Bakken oil EUR in 2018 vs. 2017 with both improving by 37%. Seaport’s data shows WPX’s oil EURs in the Bakken improved 28% last year.

Others showing notable gains in Bakken oil EURs, according to the Seaport report, were Continental Resources (up about 18%) and Hess Corp. (up about 25%).

The Seaport analysts noted results in the report should be viewed with the understanding that the state data can be flawed and the EUR estimates were calculated by Drillinginfo, which uses an Arps model that could include some “shoddy” production data.

The analysts also said the state data “doesn’t take into account downtime for shut-ins, relies upon an algorithm to allocate production between wells on multi-well pads, has inconsistencies with lateral lengths, and doesn’t adjust for different flowback approaches.”