The U.S. economy will continue to wobble along this year, although the worst is probably over, according to Tucker Hart Adams, chief economist for US Bank in Denver. She gave her outlook to the Denver Energy Finance Discussion Group. Adams had forecast a year ago that natural gas, which was at about $9 at the time, would be only $2 per thousand cubic feet in January 2002. She did not provide a price forecast this year. From World War II on, most recessions have lasted an average 11 months, which would imply the current recession should soon be over. But Adams notes that, although there are signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector, the real estate market hasn't taken a hit yet. She thinks falling sales and increased vacancy rates are still to come. She cited these events as required to climb out of recession: • A reduction in excess production capacity, which only time will cure. • Debt reduction and restructuring. The U.S. has the lowest quality of debt it has seen in many years, she says. • A reduction in the proliferation of credit-card buying, particularly with the so-called "new platinum" cards. • Recovery efforts in other countries. This is the first time in recent memory that the entire civilized world is in some stage of recession at the same time, she says. Adams does not see an end to the recession by mid-2002, but rather sees the economy moving sideways. By this summer, she thinks, growth would reach levels to instill some new consumer confidence, but even so, most of the U.S. will not see a full recovery this year. Once full recovery is under way, the employment situation will be reversed, so she cautioned employers to retain their valued employees. -W.H. Leach Jr.

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