BP has again revised its forecast for U.S. energy production, estimating even higher shale oil and gas output in its “Energy Outlook 2035” report, the company announced at the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston. “By looking five years farther down the road, we were able to see some interesting changes: India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth; renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD countries will have started to ‘crack the code’ of sustaining economic growth while reducing energy demand,” said Mark Finley, BP Plc’s general manager of global energy markets.

“We have [once again] revised our forecast higher for U.S. shale gas and tight oil,” he said. “The dramatic increase in domestic production in recent years has made the U.S. the world’s largest producer of natural gas and liquid fuels and has allowed the U.S. to cut its import dependence sharply [in the case of oil, by half]. For the past two years, the U.S. has had the biggest increase in oil production in the world and the biggest increase in our own history.”

Long-term energy trends demonstrate that achieving sustainable growth remains a challenge, despite energy efficiency improvements as energy demand in developing countries, and therefore global CO2 emissions, continues to grow.

“Virtually all [95%] of the growth in global energy demand will be in the rapidly growing emerging economies, especially in Asia,” Finley noted. “We believe that the U.S. and other mature economies will eventually figure out how to achieve continued economic growth without growing their energy demand. That partly is due to significant improvements in energy efficiency. We estimate that by 2035, the amount of energy needed globally to produce a dollar of economic output will have fallen by 36%.”

Energy efficiency, combined with what the company finds to be adequate hydrocarbon resources, will fuel continued growth for many decades to come, he said.

“In our ‘Statistical Review of World Energy,’ we have tracked global proved reserves for oil and natural gas for more than 30 years, and the data rise strongly over time,” he said. “One reason we are optimistic the world can have sufficient energy is that we see competition and innovation driving rapid growth of new forms of supply, such as shale gas and tight oil.”

The U.S. will continue to dominate global production of tight oil and shale gas—even in 2035—due to factors specific to the country, according to Finley.

“The ‘above ground’ factors that have driven the rapid growth of shale output in the U.S.—including a large and highly competitive domestic industry and a system of private ownership of property—are difficult to duplicate elsewhere,” he said. “And it’s important that we not take the success of these factors here in the U.S. for granted.”

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