Brent crude oil dropped below $70 a barrel (bbl) on Nov. 9 for the first time since April, officially entering a bear market as losses reached more than 20% since its peak last month.

Traders have rapidly reassessed the state of oil supplies as higher output from the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia has overshadowed the start of U.S. sanctions against Iranian exports, sending prices tumbling since Brent hit a four-year high of $86/bbl in early October.

The dramatic reversal in the market is likely to heap pressure on OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, which is already said to be looking at the possibility of throttling back production in a bid to support prices next year.

But for President Donald Trump, the oil price slide will be taken as a victory, as he has pressured allies to keep prices under control by raising output while Washington moves to curtail Iran’s exports.

Brent’s drop below $70/bbl on Nov. 9 came shortly after the Financial Times reported that OPEC-member Iraq may also soon be adding more oil to the market under pressure from Washington to increase supplies.

Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government are close to a deal to export 200,000 to 400,000 bbl/d of crude from the disputed territory of Kirkuk, which has been largely shut in for the past year.

“Additional oil from Iraq could add pressure to oil prices but both Baghdad and Erbil are chasing revenues from higher volumes,” said Alan Mohtadi, head of T&S Consulting Energy and Security, which advises companies in the Kurdish oil and gas sector.

“The market will be watching closely to see if the deal can come to fruition, but there’s more and more oil out there for buyers.”

Prices have also dropped this week because of the US decision to issue more waivers than anticipated to Iran’s oil buyers, in a move Mr Trump has said was motivated by a desire to stop oil spiking to “$100 a barrel or $150 a barrel.”

Brent, the international benchmark, lost more than 1.5% on Nov. 9 to reach a low of $69.13/bbl, entering the commonly accepted definition of a bear market by having shed a fifth of its value from its recent peak. U.S. crude, which entered a bear market on Nov. 8 hit a fresh low of $59.28/bbl.

For bullish traders and major producing countries, the latest price drop may be secondary to concerns about a more profound shift in the market. Contracts for immediate delivery have dropped in recent days to a discount versus those for delivery next year.

This change in the market structure is generally seen as confirming of a fundamental shift in traders’ long-term perception of supplies, with ample oil seen as being available for the foreseeable future.

That may heap further pressure on prices in the coming weeks, with traders essentially testing whether the Opec cartel—and its allies including Russia—are willing or able to respond.

Russia, which is not a member of Opec but has worked as part of an expanded ‘OPEC+’ group for the last two years, has indicated it may not yet be ready to start cutting production again, preferring to allow its companies to bring new fields online.

Moscow fears that higher prices have again stimulated too much production from the U.S., where the shale boom has roared back since prices troughed below $30 a barrel in 2016.

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