The characteristics of domestic unconventional plays are "keys to shale development success" outside North America, according to Gardner Walkup, vice president, IHS CERA.
Producers eager to take their shale know-how overseas should be prepared to pick the right play, get in early and with a sizeable land position, build dynamic development plans and "become manufacturers," he said at the recent CERAWeek conference in Houston.
But first, management teams must understand how resource-play development should work.
Unconventional plays are developed differently than conventional resources, he said. Success on the unconventional side requires understanding how these fundamental differences impact business and development decisions. Producers interested in unconventional assets overseas can learn a lot from the North American approach to developing them, he added. "How well a company does developing unconventional resources has a lot to do with the company's perspective on learning."
Unconventional plays are statistical, according to Walkup. The most significant reduction in uncertainty occurs during development drilling, not in the pre-development phase as in conventional plays. Traditional ideas such as delineation, appraisal and pilots "either do not apply or need serious redefinition." Asset development reveals areas that have higher production, rather than "'sweet-spot" hunting via exploration (seismic, regional studies, and more).
"Management needs to learn how to handle the uncertainty inherent in this approach. The shale plays are not a game for teams that can only make decisions in situations where uncertainty levels are low.
"And, you have to have staying power. Having an attitude of 'a couple of failed wells and I'm out of here' will pretty much guarantee failure in an unconventional play."
Unconventional plays are also "manufacturing and infrastructure plays," he added.
"Learning curves here are critical. These assets are long-lived in both development spending and revenue generation and thus firms must reduce unit costs and improve unit performance over time to be successful.
"Also, capturing the upside requires access to markets, acceptable fiscal terms, the ability to handle higher-intensity developments, and robust operator and service-company communities."
Success doesn't come from just being in a resource play; it's tied to how you operate once you get in, he said.
"Management has to set expectations, then install systems and controls in order to manage to the learning curve. When you begin to look at your operation like a manufacturing operation, you can begin to measure some important characteristics, and over time, and with enough running room in a play, you can bring the learning curve down."
Unconventional resources also require coordination among many stakeholders. Balance is required between producers, service providers, regulatory organizations and local communities.
"Finally, because of the thousands of wells that are needed per play, this stakeholder network is essential. Capturing a large market share of a play will help get advantaged contracts and attract operator talent. Being proactively engaged with stakeholders is critical to success, especially when we start to make development decisions about unconventional assets overseas."
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