One of the greatest ironies ever seen in the oil and gas industry is unfolding today. At the very moment of the industry’s greatest strength, when it can tap into more crude oil and natural gas than ever before, we are starting to hear more people speak about peak demand for oil.

This is occurring against the backdrop of U.S. oil production climbing once again, now nearing 9 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) but expected to reach 9.5- or 10 MMbbl/d in the next year or two. In any case, we will maintain our rank among the top three crude oil producers in the world, neck and neck with Saudi Arabia and Russia.

This will potentially cap oil prices. How high that cap will be is a source of much debate amongst the pundits.

Thinking much longer term, we wonder about this concept of peak demand. Some say it will be reached by 2030; others say 2040. There are many conflicting yet interesting data points to consider, from growth in Chinese and Indian oil demand to the world’s adherence to the Paris Climate Accord, to the pace at which we adopt electric vehicles.

Some eager investors are betting big on the latter. For one day recently, Tesla’s market cap surpassed that of Ford. It is also running close to General Motors and Honda, each within the $50- to $52-billion range—but still far below the market caps of Toyota, Daimler or Volkswagen.

Last year Tesla manufactured 84,000 electric vehicles, a huge accomplishment for an upstart, yet that pales in comparison with the major car companies. Tesla’s market share is still below 1%, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Nearly 2,500 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles were sold or leased globally in 2016—a tiny fraction of the vehicles sold. However, this was more than a three-fold increase over 2015, according to a report by Information Trends, a Washington, D.C., research firm.

Sales grew fastest in California—no surprise there—but remained behind Japan in terms of sales volume. Toyota and Hyundai dominated these sales.

The report mentioned that Mercedes Benz will soon introduce another evolution in fuel cell technology, a car called the GLC F-Cell, which has a plug-in propulsion battery. It is supposed to roll out later this year and will be equipped with a fuel cell and plug-in propulsion batteries.

Yet more changes lie ahead in transportation that might reduce oil demand. The Houston Chronicle recently reported that John Goodenough, professor emeritus at the University of Texas at Austin’s Cockrell School of Engineering, has co-invented a new type of battery that will compete with the internal combustion engine. In the 1970s, he co-invented the lithium-ion battery that powers laptops and cell phones.

He told the Chronicle that society has to figure out how to get off fossil fuels, but that people in Houston should relax, as the transition will take many more years.

Meanwhile, what do people think about energy today? UT, which just released its annual energy poll, this time of 2,013 Americans, provides some clues. Some 75% said they believe climate change is real, but only 20% said they believe it is from natural causes.

“We’re seeing a marked change in attitudes on a variety of issues for the first time in years,” said Sheril Kirshenbaum, director of the UT Energy Poll. “For example, over the past six months, the percentage of Americans who say they are not concerned about carbon emissions has increased from 19% to 30%.”

The percentage who said climate change is “mostly due to natural forces” has increased from 5% to 20% during the past 12 months. Seventy-five percent said climate change is occurring. Despite this, nearly half—43%—want President Trump to revive the struggling U.S. coal industry, citing job creation and energy independence among the primary reasons.

The free market, however, is signaling that coal use will continue to decline, to be displaced by cheaper and cleaner energy such as natural gas. It is doubtful coal can recover given the wave of decisions being made around the nation, whether based on economics or a cultural shift in thinking about energy and the environment.

Peak demand signals continue to proliferate for oil and coal. Increased solar generation in California has led to negative wholesale electricity prices. The Connecticut governor and officials of furniture conglomerate IKEA recently celebrated the installation of a fuel cell system to power the IKEA store in New Haven—soon to be at all of its stores. Onsite power generation is the new thing.

Where this cultural shift leads remains to be seen, but judging by all the pipeline projects emanating from the Permian Basin alone, E&P companies will continue to plumb thousands of drilling locations. The Permian is thought to hold the same amount of oil reserves as the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia. We are fortunate to have a long-term bounty of oil and gas, enough to power our needs for decades to come, assuming con­sumers will still need the product.

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