The relentless cyclicality of the industry is what keeps energy players continually looking over their shoulders for the next up or downturn.

Credit Suisse analysts led by James Wicklund published a note Feb. 1 stating what they admitted might be viewed as “heresy” for oil analysts: Rather than worrying about the risk of low oil prices, they were instead concerned about crude moving too high.

If oil prices head too high, the industry will embark on yet another ramp of production growth, eventual oversupply and resulting commodity price decline. This remains true despite the industry’s financial restructuring and new caution post the most recent downturn.

All analysis must be reconsidered in light of the stock market sell-off that rattled valuations across the board as the month progressed, of course. Crude prices weakened as the financial market retrenchment continued. But the Credit Suisse report still brings up for debate valid issues heading into 2018.

The Credit Suisse research team points out that while the industry needs longer-term investors, at $65-plus oil, those investors “can feel like they missed the move and continue to be hesitant to commit capital.“ These are the folks driving capital discipline for E&P managements.

But if long-term investors remain on the sidelines, “then management could very well switch back to appealing to shorter-term investors who might reward more on production growth,” the analysts said.

And we know where the short-term strategy leads: oversupply.

“Activity and pricing would move up sharply, as would U.S. production that is now already at 48-year highs,” they said, noting that the early February report by the Energy Information Administration that tallied the highest monthly crude oil production since 1970. The ultimate irony is that a return to the “hyper-cyclical moves of the past few years” would not appeal to those same long-term investors that are needed, according to the analysts.

The oil prices that the Credit Suisse analysts think would best underpin industry stability are between $57-$62. This range would “likely provide the industry with reasonable growth, reasonable pricing, rational equipment supply and a multiyear reasonable growth market.”

With E&Ps “well-hedged at prices above where most capital spending growth forecasts were based,” the E&P segment is basically assured of 12% to 15% capex growth this year, and offers some buying opportunities, according to the Credit Suisse report.

The analysts think U.S. onshore completions-focused stocks remain likely to outperform.

On Feb. 6, Cowen & Co. analysts weighed in on the stock market meltdown and production growth outlook. “This market reminds me of some of the darker days in 2008 recently, but our preferred stocks have stronger balance sheets and upside potential,” analyst Charles Robertson said.

Robertson added that a new mini-cycle is just beginning, with much remaining to be worked out over the new two years, including “OPEC exit strategy and U.S. E&P constraints.”

The Cowen analysts look for 2018 E&P budgets to be reined in until infrastructure is built out later in the year. And they see capital intensity issues on the horizon: “E&Ps will require more capital to grow production volumes this year as a result of accelerating base declines.”

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