In the low-price environment the oil and gas industry is experiencing, allowing free trade of crude oil exports could prove beneficial to U.S. prosperity in the months and years to come, said Dr. Helen Currie, senior economist for ConocoPhillips.

Currie spoke about the need for such exports during a breakfast hosted by the Houston chapter of Young Professionals in Energy. The policies banning crude oil exports in the U.S. date back to the 1970s and the Arab oil embargo. Reversing those policies would mean a stabilization and possibly an increase in U.S. production.

“This is important even in a low-price environment—especially in a low-price-environment,” Currie said. “It’s very important to be able to let the markets operate efficiently without barriers to trade and let barrels go to the highest bidder.”

Rystad Energy estimated what shale oil production would be by the year 2020 if oil prices were $100 vs. $70 per barrel. “You see a pretty big gap,” Currie noted. “So 2020, five years out from now, you’re going to be looking at a world with a couple million barrels a day less of U.S. output just from the shale plays due to that lower price. So there’s no mystery; lower prices will reduce the amount of output we’re generating.”

Allowing exports of U.S. crude would allow the sector to find new markets to serve. A 2014 IHS study estimated that by allowing crude oil exports, the U.S. would export anywhere from 1 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) to more than 2 MMbbl/d total by 2020 or 2025.

That would end up actually lowering consumer fuel costs by around 10 cents or 11 cents per gallon, Currie explained.

Looking back at the past few years, increased oil and gas production in the U.S. has positively impacted the nation’s economy. Currie pointed to the state of North Dakota as an example of how increased production has led to economic growth.

“In the state of North Dakota during the last few years, the employment of the state grew rapidly right along with production of the Bakken oil play.” This caused the gross domestic product of the state as a whole to more than double. “That means everyone in that state got some financial benefit either directly or indirectly from the oil production,” she added.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the oil and gas sector’s jobs grew by more than two-thirds in the last seven years, while the rest of the economy only grew 2% by 2014.

The U.S. manufacturing sector reversed a 10-year decline recently, which Currie attributed to growth in hydrocarbon production from unconventional resources. “We saw a turnaround in manufacturing activity that immediately coincided with a heck of a lot of production from the natural gas sector,” she said.

By allowing crude oil exports and maintaining current production levels, the manufacturing sector would continue to benefit from plentiful domestic natural gas supply in the current price environment. “Lower crude [and natural gas] prices are part and parcel to lower energy prices,” Currie said. “Those things are great for economic development.”

Allowing exports, which would provide an incentive to increase hydrocarbon production domestically, would equate to the U.S. bringing in more in taxes.

“Perhaps equally important, if not more important, is that allowing the U.S. to trade more crude, I would argue, strengthens our geopolitical position and helps us to be a better ally to many of our counterparts overseas, whether they are oil consumers or oil producers,” Currie said.

At least six well-known consulting companies have run macroeconomic models that examine what could happen to the U.S. economy and pricing if varying levels of crude exports are allowed. “The one thing that all of them concluded is the U.S. economy would be better off if exports are allowed,” Currie added.

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