Rising crude prices are sort of like the tax reform passed near year-end: they have people hurrying to assess the effect they may have on the energy sector overall.

One of the obvious challenges for E&Ps as oil prices continue to surge is hedging positions. A report late in the year from Cowen & Co. analysts led by Charles Robertson II noted that the crude rebound “has pushed the 2018 crude strip above some E&Ps’ three-way collar hedge ceilings, limiting upside.”

Cowen tallied hedge positions for a number of the E&Ps it covers. Anadarko Petroleum, Continental Resources, ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources and Occidental Petroleum are 100% unhedged for 2018, so they have the most upside as crude prices creep upward, the analysts noted. On the other hand, Concho Resources, Lonestar Resources, Oasis Petroleum and QEP Resources “are the most negatively impacted names under coverage,” they said. Those companies had from 30% to 40% of their oil production hedged, and “are already losing $6+/bbl at the current 2018 crude strip versus where they collared their crude.”

Some of the other E&Ps hedged at higher prices, so they still have some upside to their positions, according to the Cowen report.

A research note from Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. on the last business day of the year forecast continued onshore production gains in the Permian and Williston; North Dakota production for October hit a record, the analysts noted. “With WTI crude having rallied towards $60/bbl on the front end of the curve, we do expect E&Ps to begin to methodically add to activity levels, but a large DUC backlog in the Permian and an undersupplied completion market should translate to incremental growth weighted towards second-half 2018,” they added.

Rising crude prices helped North Dakota oil production grew by 78,000 bbl/d month over month in October, according to the TPH report, and natural gas also raced ahead, showing the largest month over month gains in the last several years with a jump of 186 MMcf/d to an “all-time high of 2,131 MMcf/d” for the month.

On the natural gas front, TPH expected the recent wintry weather across the Northeast and Midwest, coupled with slightly below normal inventories and the prospect of strong draws, to help the recent rally in prices “to hold (TPe about $3/Mcf near-term) before supply catches up deeper into 2018.”

Refiners are expected to benefit most handily from the tax reform as they are “one of the only industry groups that remain full tax payers,” TPH noted. They’ve already had a spectacular year, with average stock prices for the group up by nearly 50% year-over-year, and “we see EPS and EBITDA growth ahead in 2018 for almost every U.S. refiner, which should elicit ongoing positive share price performance.”

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