Summer temps in the U.S. will be returning to the highs seen last year, and natural gas consumption for power generation is expected to return to 2023’s record usage levels.

But while the U.S. will need more electricity overall, the difference maker in power generation will come from a growing solar sector.

Natural gas consumption is not expected to rise further than last year’s all-time high consumption levels of approximately 44.69 Bcf/d in June, July and August, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Electrical consumption tends to peak in the hot summer months as the power needed for air conditioning increases.

The National Weather Service’s latest forecast for the period sees higher than average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

On top of high temperatures, increasing electricity demand will be driven by an expanding manufacturing sector and the growth of data centers, according to the EIA.

Solar power is expected to handle most of the overall increase, according to the EIA. About 19 gigawatts (GW) of solar power was added to the U.S. grid last year and 37 GW of power is expected to be added in 2024.

The country will need about 1,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) over June through August to meet the demand, which would be a new record for overall power generation, according to the EIA. Last year, the figure was closer to 1,170 GWh.

But solar is still a minority in the overall energy mix. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission broke down the mix of U.S. energy consumption in 2024 as 42% gas-fired, 14% coal, 13% wind and 10% solar.

According to the EIA’s forecast, natural gas is a cheap option for utilities seeking to boost electricity output quickly.

Gas consumption in 2023 hit a new record as more coal plants were retired, and utilities came to rely on combined-cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and simple-cycle natural gas turbine (SCGT) plants.

Power companies deploy SCGT plants as peaking plants in the summer, when solar and wind power's intermittency fluctuates the most. In the summers of 2022 and 2023, SCGT plants handled 20% of energy production during peak times.

“As electric generation capacity from renewable sources grows, natural gas is used increasingly to balance the intermittent nature of electricity produced from wind and solar,” the EIA wrote in the forecast.

Natural gas prices have been on a minor rally since the end of April, after spending most of the first quarter of 2024 at under $2/MMBtu at the Henry Hub. As of May 30, the front-month futures price was around $2.60/MMBtu.

The natural gas market has been dealing with a supply glut for much of 2024, as producers have continued to develop supplies in advance of an expected boost in demand once several LNG export projects along the Gulf Coast begin to come online in 2025.

According to the EIA’s May 30 natural gas storage report, the U.S. had 2.8 Tcf of natural gas in storage on May 24. The amount was more than 350 Bcf higher than the same time last year. Storage levels have been above five-year highs since January.

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