Monthly U.S. crude production hit a new average high in August—but preliminary government estimates are hinting that surging crude volumes in October may soon topple that record.

The Energy Information Administration, or EIA, said on Oct. 31 that daily average crude production in August hit 13.05 MMbbl/d after volumes rose 0.7% from July. The last monthly record was set in November 2019, when the output reached 13 MMbbl/d. The market then took a hit during the COVID-19 shutdown and has recovered slowly since.

Now, two months after setting the production high, EIA data suggests the record may be ready to fall again.

On Oct. 6, the EIA reported that the average daily rate of 13.2 MMbbl/d over a week was a new benchmark.

On Nov. 1, the EIA reported that the 13.2 MMbbl/d average had held over the next three weeks, ending on Oct. 27. If the rate of production continued at the same pace for the remainder of October, the U.S. will have set a second record for monthly domestic crude production over the last three months.

In August, Texas led all other oil-producing states by a wide margin, accounting for 43.1% of the daily production, or 5.63 MMbbl/d, an increase of 0.5 % from the previous month. Domestic assets in the Gulf of Mexico averaged 1.89 MMbbl/d, which was a decrease from July of 2.2%. Rounding out the top four producing states, New Mexico production ticked up by 2.3% and North Dakota by 3.2%.

Gross natural gas in the Lower 48 production also rose in August, up 1% from July to a record monthly average of 116,254 MMcf/d. The previous high was set in May at 115.2 MMcf/d. Texas again led producers with 34,371 MMcf/d, up 0.9% from July.

Comments