EIA said on Aug. 17 it expects that global petroleum production in 2022 will average 101.8 MMbbl/d, which is 20,000 b/d less than EIA's July STEO estimate. (Source: Shutterstock.com)
Total petroleum production will average 98.9 MMbbl/d in the second half of 2021, down from last month's forecast of 99.4 MMbbl/d, EIA said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Aug. 17.
EIA revised down its projection for world petroleum production in 2021 because of lower forecast production from OPEC, which is only slightly offset by increased forecast production from Russia. EIA expects that global petroleum production in 2022 will average 101.8 MMbbl/d, which is 20,000 b/d less than EIA's July STEO.
On July 18, OPEC+ agreed to increase monthly crude oil production starting August 2021. The latest agreement calls for total OPEC+ crude oil production to increase by 400,000 b/d each month until the previous production cuts are fully reversed, which would occur by the third quarter of 2022 if implemented at that rate. However, OPEC+ extended the production agreement to include monthly meetings through the end of 2022 so that it can adjust production targets as necessary.
In the August STEO, EIA forecasts that OPEC total petroleum production will average 33 MMbbl/d during the second half of the year, down 600,000 b/d from the July forecast for the same period. In the July STEO, EIA projected OPEC would raise production by more than the group ultimately agreed to in order to meet global demand. In addition, EIA expects most OPEC countries will fully comply with the agreement during the second half of 2021.
EIA also revised its projection for OPEC petroleum production in 2022 up by 40,000 b/d from the July STEO to average 34.2 MMbbl/d. In 2022, EIA expects OPEC+ monthly petroleum production increases to total less than 400,000 b/d to avoid oversupplying the markets and pushing down the price of crude oil. However, EIA expects that some countries will produce more petroleum as a result of their increased baselines starting in May 2022, including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq.
EIA's forecast assumes that existing sanctions against Iran will remain in place through the end of the forecast period. However, the forecast includes rising petroleum production from Iran over that period despite sanctions remaining in place. EIA assumes that OPEC will not adjust petroleum production levels to accommodate this increase.
Recommended Reading
Shale Outlook: Power Demand Drives Lower 48 Midstream Expansions
2025-01-10 - Rising electrical demand may finally push natural gas demand to catch up with production.
Targa Buys Back Bakken Assets After Strong 2024
2025-02-20 - Targa Resources Corp. is repurchasing its interest in Targa Badlands LLC for $1.8 billion and announced three new projects to expand its NGL system during its fourth-quarter earnings call.
Western Midstream to Build Permian Produced Water Pipeline
2025-02-26 - Western Midstream is investing up to $450 million to expand its produced water infrastructure, including the Pathfinder pipeline to transport produced water to disposal facilities in the Delaware Basin.
Polar LNG Express: North American NatGas Dynamics to Change with LNG Canada
2025-02-21 - The next major natural gas export project in North America has a location advantage with Asian markets. LNG Canada opens up a new pathway that will change the price dynamics for producers.
Howard Energy Clinches Deal for EPIC's Ethylene Pipeline
2025-01-09 - Howard Energy Partners’ purchase of EPIC Midstream Holdings ethylene pipeline comes days after EPIC agreed to sell midstream NGL assets to Phillips 66 for $2.2 billion.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.