Exclusive: Arbo Monitoring Courts, Congress Amid Energy Policy Shifts

Jordan Blum, editorial director, Hart Energy: Thanks for joining us. I'm joined by Chip Moldenhauer, the CEO and founder of Arbo, specializing in energy analytics. Thanks so much for being here. I really appreciate it. So there's a lot of potential energy roadblocks you're tracking, whether it's rulemaking, politics, litigation, financing. I just wanted to get your thoughts on, as we enter 2025, what you’re most focused on now and why.

Chip Moldenhauer, CEO and founder, Arbo: Yeah, that's a great question because there's certainly a lot of uncertainty whenever there's an administration change. We're based in Washington D.C. so we're kind of at the center point of a lot of what's happening. Some of the things that are really on our radar screen really revolve around the courts, [Capitol] hill, as well as administrative agencies. I think really over the course of the past several months, the friction between the courts, the interpretation by the administrative agencies and what's going to come of permitting reform or some variation thereof coming out of the hill are all three areas that we're watching. And we're a data analytics company, so really we specialize in trying to take regulatory information and turn it into commercial intelligence. So we spend a lot of time with our customers, primarily in the midstream business or operating or trading in specific products, and focusing on what does this really mean with respect to how long is the process going to take? And as you rightly pointed out, there's a few variables on the table right now.

JB: Very true. So as you mentioned, we have the Trump administration returning next month. Do you think the policy and regulatory environment is really going to change enough to really impact oil and gas fundamentals?

CM: Yeah, I think sentiment really does matter. On a number of panels leading up to the election, there was generally a view that maybe sentiment doesn't matter, but in my opinion it does. And there's been positive sentiment largely driven by a Republican controlled government that will largely involve appointees that generally come from industry or more industry friendly to oil and gas business. And I think that's very positive. From a risk standpoint, I think there are risks with respect to thoughts about reducing staff at any of the key agencies. Take FERC [Federal Energy Regulatory Commission] as a great example. You have career civil servants that have been there a long time that are great at their jobs and at making sure projects get moved through the process. And I think to the extent you want to reduce government in those areas, it could have an unintended consequence of unfortunately making the process longer. So those are some of the things we're watching for, among others.

JB: Is there much of any concern about tariffs impacting oil and gas right now?

CM: There is, largely on the steel side with imports coming in from Canada. We don't dive as deeply into the impacts on tariff side, but it's certainly a concern. We had several questions yesterday from customers about it.

JB: Understood. And what administrative changes do you see potentially impacting the midstream sector, which has obviously been critically important. And also if you wanted to touch on the LNG pause as well.

CM: Yeah, there are a couple things we're watching for, I'll break it [down] through the courts, administrative agencies and then the hill, I'll take it from in reverse order. Obviously with Senator Manchin retiring and his permitting reform bill with Senator Barrasso. What will come of that? I'm not a prognosticator as to whether it will pass or not, but we think there's a lot of things in that bill that could be very advantageous to the industry. If it doesn't pass, perhaps there will be another version of the bill that will be advantageous to the industry. I think there are components of restrictions on timelines related to litigation that was adversarial perhaps to project and infrastructure developers that I think, if not passing this first bill will likely live on in a second bill and be positive to the industry. We're watching what's happening at the courts.

There's never been more litigation related to environmental reviews for energy infrastructure projects. It's very uncertain right now. There are cases in the D.C. Circuit, there's a case before the Supreme Court that generally revolve around administrative agency authority around the NEPA process. And how that settles out, which could be as soon as next spring with some of these court cases, I think could be very beneficial or at least provide some certainty, which is I think what the industry is really looking for. And kind of the third area of the administrative agency front, we're watching what's going to happen with respect to appointees at the FERC. Does the current chairman stay on, does he not, who is appointed perhaps in his stead, but we're also watching what's going to happen with respect to more staff level shuffling within the FERC? Will there be a new general counsel or not? And how will some of these government efficiency programs impact the FERC, DOE [Department of Energy] as well as EPA [Environmental Protection Agency]?

JB: Yeah. I mean, as you mentioned with the legislation for permitting infrastructure reform, well first of all, that's going to take some degree of bipartisan compromise, but do you see that as particularly viable in year one or do you think that's going to maybe take longer to play out?

CM: Yeah, I think given the momentum, it's interesting you said year one because I feel like with permitting reform, it feels like it's year one, but it's been around now for a couple of years, and that's generally ,unfortunately, what it takes now to get the government to get good legislation through. It wasn't really a kitchen table issue when it came up several years ago, but I think Americans are realizing that access to affordable, reliable energy and secure energy is critical. And it's not just an oil and gas, midstream issue. It's an issue that impacts the electric transmission space. In fact, there's more problems with respect to interconnectivity and choke points to growth on the power side, which candidly is an area that's benefiting the oil and gas business as well with the growth in AI data center demand, which is obviously growing power demand. So I think there's a lot of opportunity, and I think if it doesn't pass the Manchin- Barrasso bill, you're going to see very quickly on the heels of that, another version of it comes about in Congress.

JB: Very good. Speaking of Congress, it took a literal act of Congress to finally get the Mountain Valley pipeline completed after a decade. Obviously, it's historically been really hard to get pipelines built in the Appalachia, Northeast region. Do you see that changing at all? I know it's not going to get easier by any means, but do you see it easing in any respect?

CM: Well, it's certainly good when you get a large asset like the Mountain Valley Pipeline built. There will be other business development opportunities for their teams serving other utilities and other producers in the region as laterals are built over time. So I think that that sort of hub, if you will, is very positive. I think a lot of the industry is also watching what's happening right now at FERC. They need to rule on a remand related to a Williams project. How the FERC rules on that I think will be instructive. And I think it's one of the first big issues that the new three commissioners are going to have to tackle. And I think that's going to be really instructive for a lot of uncertainty that could get eased based on a ruling that comes out of the FERC that's positive for the industry.

JB: We'll certainly be watching. Well, thank you so much for being here. We really appreciate it. To read and watch more, please visit online at hartenergy.com.