By 2030, the world’s energy paradigm will have changed drastically, with growing energy needs matched against the need for reduced environmental impact. Speaking at the 2010 KPMG Global Energy Conference, ExxonMobil Corp. planning division manager Tom Eizember outlined the company’s projections for energy consumption in the coming decades.

The world’s population is expected to reach 8 billion in the next 20 years, creating increased demand for energy. “There is nothing we make or consume that doesn’t require some form of energy somewhere in the process,” Eizember noted.

Nearly 1.5 billion people, a quarter of the world’s population, lack access to electricity. An even greater number lack modern cooking and heating fuels. Expanding energy access should be a shared global goal, said Eizember. “Our first challenge is reducing the level of poverty in the world today.”

By 2030, the developing world will require 65% more energy than 2005 levels, mainly due to increased power generation. By contrast, the developed world is expected to require less energy than current levels, despite population increases, due to increased energy efficiency.

Total world energy demand, currently 500 quadrillion Btu per day, will only rise to 650 quadrillion by 2030 due to increased efficiencies, according to Eizember. Should efficiencies not come into play, world energy demand could reach more than 900 quadrillion Btu daily.
“We believe gasoline demand will be peaking and falling in the U.S., and plateauing in other developed countries.”

Eizember attributes the projected drop in gasoline demand to a combination of factors: expanding hybrid and natural gas car fleets, and increases in fuel efficiency, such as increasing the number of gears in a continuously variable transmission and better aerodynamics for optimum fuel economy.

ExxonMobil does not see plug-in hybrids becoming a viable part of the U.S. car fleet. Eizember said their return on investment is 10 years, practically the vehicles’ life. Further, he noted that batteries are extremely inefficient for powering vehicles, because the amount of energy in a typical car battery is only equivalent to three tablespoons of gasoline.

Better energy efficiency will affect environmental impacts, as well. Eizember said CO2 emissions in Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries will decline 15% and by 2030 will return to 1980 levels, despite increases in population.

Non-OECD countries, on the other hand, will account for nearly two-thirds of total carbon output. These countries will account for all CO2 emission growth through 2030, but per-capita emissions will remain lower than for OECD countries, Eizember said. The per-capital emission rate is currently four times higher in OECD countries, but over the next two decades will shrink to two and a half times higher.

Comments