Though current energy headlines may focus on the downturn in crude, gas and liquids prices, the long-term outlook for these products is very bright, according to ExxonMobil Corp.’s latest long-term energy forecast, “The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.”

Much of the gains are based on advancements in developing nations, especially China and India. These countries’ increased populations and expansing middle class are expected to account for half of the world’s energy growth. Additional growth will come from Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand and Indonesia.

“Over the next few decades, population and income growth—and an unprecedented expansion of the global middle class—are expected to create new demands for energy. We see global energy consumption rising by about 35% from 2010 to 2040,” the report said. This growth accounts for improved efficiency, as without improved heating and transportation technology, the forecast would be 140% growth instead.

Though population growth is an important factor in determining energy demand growth, it is the convergence of population and economic growth that really drives energy demand. “The Brookings Institution estimates 2.8 billion people will join the middle class between 2010 and 2030, and almost all of them will live in developing countries,” the report said. ExxonMobil noted that 80% of new middle-class entrants will come from these countries. This corresponds with where the bulk of energy growth will occur with the report anticipating 70% coming from these same nations.

Despite the anticipation for economic growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations, improved efficiency across all sectors of the industry could limit energy consumption energy demand will decrease by 7% despite an expected 80% increase in GDP during the study’s timeframe. The bulk of the overall demand growth will occur in the first half of the study, from 2010 to 2025.

While improved economics equates to more vehicles on the road, increased efficiency means that energy demand from these vehicles isn’t keeping pace with the increased usage of the vehicles themselves.

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