The NGL-powered DeLorean throttled up again in the past week, driving the hypothetical barrel up and over $40 to its highest point since July 2014. Along for the ride, Mont Belvieu, Texas, ethane went back further in history, cracking 50 cents per gallon (gal) for the first time since March 2012.
Inventory? We don’t need inventory for where we’re going.
OK, that’s not true. Supply will come in handy for meeting increased demand but tighter storage and rising exports are pushing NGL prices up almost across the board at Mont Belvieu as well as at the Conway, Kan., hub.
Mont Belvieu ethane last week jumped 14.3%, following last week’s 14.9% advance. Since the end of July, that hub’s price has soared 59%. For the year, it’s up 141%.
Mont Belvieu’s ethane margin rose about 24% to almost 32 cents/gal. When the mighty rally began at the end of July, ethane’s price was at a respectable 31.9 cents/gal with a margin of 13.4 cents/gal. Mont Belvieu ethane began the year at 21.05 cents/gal and an anemic margin of 2.88 cents/gal.
The rise for the composite “barrel” is impressive but less dramatic. Mont Belvieu’s barrel began the year at $32.94, which translates to a hike of 24.2%. Compared to 2017, when Mont Belvieu’s barrel sunk as low as $22.25, 2018’s price was strong, slipping below an average of $29 for only one week in early March.
The Mont Belvieu margin began the year at $22.93/bbl; last week’s margin was $30.56. Conway’s margin has widened by $1.25/bbl.
Propane continued its incursion into $1-plus territory at Mont Belvieu for the fourth straight week, reaching another high for the year and its highest level in exactly four years.
In the week ended Sept. 14, storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 experienced an increase of 86 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the EIA reported. The figure, compared to the Bloomberg survey’s consensus average of 82 Bcf, resulted in a total of 2.722 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). That is 19.8% below the 3.394 Tcf figure at the same time in 2017 and 17.7% below the five-year average of 3.308 Tcf.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com or @JHMarkman
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