Frac Spread: Can President Make NGL Prices Great Again?

With the installation of a presidential administration that promises change, it seems appropriate to turn back the ol’ NGL clock to see how things were the last time this happened.

When President Barack Obama took his oath of office on Jan. 20, 2009, the price of the hypothetical NGL barrel at Mont Belvieu, Texas, was only 12 cents higher than it was this week—virtually no difference. At Conway, Kan., the barrel’s price is 10% higher at the start of Donald Trump’s administration than it was at the start of Obama’s.

Other differences are more pronounced. The price of ethane at Mont Belvieu has fallen 34% in the past eight years (7% at Conway) and condensate, which was not allowed to be exported when Obama took office, is up 25% at Mont Belvieu and 29% at Conway.

Butane begins the Trump administration up 10% at Mont Belvieu and 40% at Conway. Isobutane is almost 5% below its price of eight years ago at Mont Belvieu, but 22% higher at Conway.

Had enough of the seesaw in prices? Didn’t think so. President Obama took office in the midst of the Great Recession, but he was a two-term president.

How do the numbers stack up at the start of Donald Trump’s term compared to the start of Obama’s second term in 2013? Much different, it turns out. The Mont Belvieu NGL barrel is down 32%, and the Conway barrel is off 28%.

The price of ethane at both hubs is almost the same as it was four years ago, and propane has only fallen 11% at Mont Belvieu and less than 10% at Conway. The butanes and C₅₊, however, have tumbled off their respective metaphorical cliffs since 2013.

The price of butane at Mont Belvieu was about $1.63 per gallon (gal) when Obama took office for the second time. At Conway, the price was about $1.65/gal. That means butane has dropped 40% at Mont Belvieu and 30% at Conway.

Isobutane is down 45% at Mont Belvieu and 31% at Conway, and C₅₊ is off 45% at Mont Belvieu and 44% at Conway in the last four years.

So prices have been worse, but also better. Last week’s Conway price of C₅₊ cracked $1.20/gal for the first time in almost 19 months, or since late June 2015. The peak during Obama’s second term was $2.41/gal in February 2013. The high point during the Obama administration was $2.69/gal in late April/early May 2011.

So, what price levels will make NGL great again? Here are the rest of the high points at Mont Belvieu during the Obama years:

• Ethane: 94 cents/gal in October 2011;
• Propane: $1.61/gal in February 2014;
• Butane: $2.16/gal in December 2011;
• Isobutane: $2.49/gal in December 2011; and
• Barrel: $66.04 in May 2011.

Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 declined by 243 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended Jan. 13, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The decrease, more than the Bloomberg consensus of 237 Bcf, resulted in a total of 2.917 Tcf. The figure is 12.9% less than the 3.348 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 2.6% below the five-year average of 2.994 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.