Frac Spread: Crude Storage, Ethane Price Both On Rise

U.S. working crude oil storage capacity rose by 34 million barrels (MMbbl) between last September and March 2016, the largest expansion in a six-month block ever recorded by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) since it began tracking the segment in 2011.

And just in time: storage utilization set a record of 74% in the week ended June 3. The largest expansions were in the Midwest (PADD 2) with 19 MMbbl, a 13% increase, and the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) which added 13 MMbbl, or 4%). The two regions combined represent 82% of total U.S. storage capacity.

The large increase in capacity comes as global crude oil supply has exceeded demand for the last two years. With near-term deliveries cheaper than long-term—a spread of $7.25, the EIA reported—now is the time to store.

The EIA’s weekly natural gas storage report for the week ended June 3 showed an increase of 65 billion cubic feet (Bcf), below the Bloomberg consensus prediction of a 77 Bcf rise. The new total of 2.972 Tcf was 28.5% above the level of 2.195 Tcf last year at this time and 32.1% over the five-year average of 2.25 Tcf for 2011 to 2015.

U.S. propane stocks increased by 1.9 MMbbl to 77.3 MMbbl as of June 3, though that level is still 1.5 MMbbl, or 1.9%, lower than a year ago.

Propane’s surge took a detour, falling 7.8% at Mont Belvieu, Texas, and 7.9% at Conway, Kan., to below 50 cents a gallon (cents/gal) at both hubs for the first time in a month. The price is still up 26.9% for the year at Mont Belvieu and 17.2% at Conway.

The hypothetical NGL barrel slipped 3.4% during the week to $20.95, but remained over $20 for the fourth straight week and fifth week in the last six. NGL are separated, or fractionated, for various market purposes. Hart Energy rejoins them in a 42-gallon spreadsheet “barrel” to illustrate the overall performance of the sector.

The barrel is up 6.2% at Mont Belvieu compared with the same week last year, and up 18.8% since the start of the year. At Conway, the barrel is up 12.4% over a year ago and 20.6% since the beginning of this year.

The only component of the barrel to enjoy a good week was ethane, which cracked 21 cents/gal at Mont Belvieu for the first time since the middle of last November, and which has increased 38.6% since the start of the year. At Conway, the price passed 17 cents/gal for the first time since March 2015 and is up 18.8% for the year.

Ethane has now stayed above 20 cents/gal at Mont Belvieu for seven of the last eight weeks, the first time it has been able to sustain that price level since mid-November 2014. It is 49.9% above its low point of 14.09 cents/gal in mid-January.

Butane at Mont Belvieu decreased by 5.6% during the week but stayed above 60 cents/gal for the fourth straight week for the first time since December. At Conway, butane was down 7.8%, but its fourth straight week over 60 cents/gal marked the first time of sustaining that level since March 2015.

Isobutane was down 4.9% at Mont Belvieu and 1.4% at Conway. The sixth straight week above 60 cents at Mont Belvieu matched the six-week streak set last December. At Conway, the price of 73.35 cents/gal was the second-highest of the year and the second-highest price since March 2015.

C₅₊ was off slightly at both hubs but remained above $1/gal for the third straight week at Mont Belvieu and the fourth straight week at Conway. It is 12% higher than it was at the start of the year at Mont Belvieu, and is 16.7% higher at Conway. At Mont Belvieu, C₅₊ is down 18.1% from the same week a year ago. At Conway, the downward change is 14.1%.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.