Recent events of cosmic significance—like the surprise electoral victory of President-elect Donald Trump and the surprise World Series victory of the Chicago Cubs—are not to blame for the NGL price tumble. Relax, it’s just a market thing.
And as the market takes, it also gives. Despite natural price struggles of late, the price on Election Day at the Houston Ship Channel was still 11.5% above what it was one year ago.
That said, the hypothetical NGL barrel at Mont Belvieu, Texas, took a 3.7% hit this week compared to last week, and Conway, Kan., suffered a 6.5% drop in price as the near-month price changed at the end of October.
From a year ago, the natural gas pattern holds. Mont Belvieu’s barrel is up 11.2% and Conway’s is up 16.1%.
Looking forward, the price outlook hinges on the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna. Commodity prices rallied when the cartel announced it would limit production in September. Then in October, members failed to agree on the quotas needed to put those limits into effect.
OPEC’s ability to make the cuts necessary to make this happen is subject to “extreme skepticism” by the Houston-based experts at En*Vantage, who are likely just being polite.
“Although there is little confidence that OPEC can pull off a credible production agreement when they formally meet, the market can still be influenced by OPEC talking up the market till the meeting,” En*Vantage said. “However the jawboning is starting to have diminishing returns.”
Then there is the matter of the vote (no, not for the Cy Young Award—c’mon, focus). While the energy industry in the U.S. is contemplating the impact of the Trump administration, foreign players are watching closely as well.
For example, the president-elect was highly critical of the Iran nuclear deal during the campaign. The State Department confirmed this week that the agreement is valid only a long as all parties uphold it, so the U.S. could withdraw after Trump takes office.
What would that mean to commodity prices? Well, the sanctions are gone, but Iran could still produce and sell crude. Reverting to sanctions on the U.S. side would imperil a deal by Boeing Inc. to sell aircraft to Iran.
Trump also said he would ask TransCanada Corp. to reapply for permits to build the Keystone XL Pipeline, which were denied by the Obama administration. However, the company would have to begin the process anew, this time with a Canadian government led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that has been much less supportive of fossil fuels than its predecessor.
Ethane prices slumped again in the past week and are now down 20.6% in the last three weeks at Mont Belvieu and 18.2% at Conway. Three ethylene crackers are coming back online, including ChevronPhillips’ Cedar Bayou plant, LyondellBasell’s Corpus Christi plant and Dow’s Plaquemine LA-3 cracker. The three, said En*Vantage, represent 155,000 bbl/d of ethane cracking capability that should be online by December.
En*Vantage expects ethane inventories to drop by about 22% from August to February.
Propane prices slipped in the past week but still remained 21% above last year’s price at this time at Mont Belvieu and almost 25% at Conway. Similarly, butane was up 12% from its year-ago price at Mont Belvieu and up 17% from a year ago at Conway.
Isobutane prices are down more than 10% at Mont Belvieu in the past three weeks but are still 26% above the year-ago price. En*Vantage attributes the recent spike to Enterprise Products Partners LP’s maintenance on its Mont Belvieu butane isomerization unit. With maintenance just about complete, the analysts expect the price spread between butane and isobutane to narrow.
Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 rose by 54 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended Nov. 4, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The increase, near the Bloomberg consensus average prediction of 53 Bcf, results in a total of 4.017 Tcf, an all-time high. That’s a 1.2% increase over the 3.897 Tcf total at this time in 2015 and 4.9% above the five-year average of 3.828 Tcf.
Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.
Recommended Reading
VTX Energy Quickly Ramps to 42,000 bbl/d in Southern Delaware Basin
2024-09-24 - VTX Energy’s founder was previously among the leadership that built and sold an adjacent southern Delaware operator, Brigham Resources, for $2.6 billion.
US Drillers Cut Oil, Gas Rigs for Third Week in a Row
2024-10-04 - The oil and gas rig count fell by two to 585 in the week to Oct. 4.
EY: How AI Can Transform Subsurface Operations
2024-10-10 - The inherent complexity of subsurface data and the need to make swift decisions demands a tailored approach.
Bowman Consulting to Manage, Monitor Delaware Basin Wells
2024-10-14 - Bowman Consulting Group’s scope of work includes conducting detailed field surveys of above-ground infrastructure assets across well sites of up to to 8 acres.
E&P Highlights: Oct. 7, 2024
2024-10-07 - Here’s a roundup of the latest E&P headlines, including a major announcement from BP and large contracts in the Middle East.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.