Help is on the way for crashing propane prices.

The Mariner East 2 pipeline, called a game-changer at the recent Marcellus-Utica Midstream Conference in Pittsburgh by Amol Wayangakar, principal and founder of Enkon Energy Advisors, will ultimately increase the Marcus Hook terminal’s export capacity by 275,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). Sunoco says the pipeline is on schedule to go online in second-quarter 2018.

Local opposition may delay Mariner 2 until the third quarter, says En*Vantage Inc., but the effect will be the same: an anxious market will wonder if propane will be available in sufficient quantities for winter 2018-2019. Result: upward pressure on prices.

At the moment, however, the pricing pressure is downward for NGL in general. The hypothetical NGL barrel at Mont Belvieu, Texas, dipped below $30 for the first time in five months as the prices for butanes have plunged 24.3% (butane) and 16.5% (isobutane) since the start of the year. During the past five-day price-tracking period, the Mont Belvieu margin for butane narrowed by 10.3% and the margin for isobutane narrowed by 7.73%.

Mont Belvieu propane has dropped 15.3% since the start of the year, with the price at Conway, Kan., down 23.8% during that time. Mont Belvieu’s price is its lowest since early September and Conway’s dropped below 70 cents per gallon (gal) for the first time since August.

With half of winter in the rearview mirror, En*Vantage sees propane markets as more relaxed about the adequacy of supply for the remainder of the season. More than that, the analysts say, is the effect from falling prices in Northwest Europe and Asia since mid-November. En*Vantage estimates that the U.S. must export 600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) to avoid a winter oversupply. With Europe experiencing its fourth-warmest January on record, propane demand for heating would naturally decline. Russia, incidentally, has been hit with very low temperatures at various times this winter.

In the week ended Feb. 9, storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 experienced a decrease of 194 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported, more than the Bloomberg consensus of a 187 Bcf draw and well above the five-year average of 154 Bcf. The figure resulted in a total of 1.884 trillion cubic feet (Tcf). That is 23.4% below the 2.461 Tcf figure at the same time in 2017 and 18.7% below the five-year average of 2.317 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.

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