The three-week rally in prices has lifted the hypothetical NGL barrel by 12.6% at Mont Belvieu, Texas, and 14.1% at Conway, Kan., returning them to the levels of late February.

The barrels were on a similar upswing a year ago, digging themselves out of much deeper holes in the mid-teens. Last week’s prices at both hubs were 37% above the price at this time last year.

Ethane and C5+ held fairly steady at both hubs, but propane and the butanes registered strong gains. All components of the barrel saw wider margins at both hubs.

While midcontinent natural gas prices moved within a limited range last week, prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 5.1%. What to make of strong gas prices? “Too much of a good thing never lasts,” En*Vantage said.

En*Vantage is concerned about the potential dimming of a bright spot in the U.S. natural gas market—specifically, LNG exports. Analysts are worried that the spread with the U.K. arbitrage is too narrow.

With startup looming for Train 4 at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s (NYSE MKT: LNG) Sabine Pass, La., terminal and Dominion’s (NYSE: D) Cove Point LNG facility now more than 80% complete, the risk of a short-term LNG glut increases. Sure, there are Asian markets, but the longer distance increases the cost of shipping. And the longer the ships are at sea, the smaller the available fleet capacity.

For now, exports are holding up. Enterprise Products Partners LP (NYSE: EPD) said last week that combined exports and imports of hydrocarbons across its marine terminals, including 18 deepwater docks along the Texas Gulf Coast, totaled 146 million barrels—with NGL, crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals making up 62% of that—during first-quarter 2017.

NGL traffic at Enterprise facilities rose by 25% compared to first-quarter 2016, and the company’s investments in dock expansions position it for further growth, especially at the Port of Houston.

Propane’s recent price strength—up 17.4% in the last three weeks at Mont Belvieu and 20% at Conway—could result in a plus for ethane, En*Vantage believes. Butane is also rising (up 19.7% at Mont Belvieu and 12.9% at Conway), making it less attractive as an ethylene feedstock and allowing ethane to resume that role.

Adding to that is En*Vantage’s expectation of declining inventories for ethane into July, right around the time that Dow Chemical’s newly completed ethane cracker in Freeport, Texas, is scheduled to fully commence operations. It should be a summer of strong ethane prices.

Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 increased by 54 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended April 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The increase, above the Bloomberg consensus of 49 Bcf, resulted in a total of 2.115 Tcf. The figure is 14.8% less than the 2.483 Tcf figure at the same time in 2016 and 15.4% above the five-year average of 1.833 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.

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