The hypothetical NGL barrel ended 2016 on 25-month highs at both the Mont Belvieu, Texas, and Conway, Kan., hubs as crude oil prices floated in the mid-$50 per barrel (bbl) range on hopes that OPEC members won’t cheat on their production quotas.

“It may take several months before the market can tell if there are definite trends of cheating,” noted En*Vantage in its weekly report, “because the quotas are meant to be an average of production over the six months of the deal.”

While the NGL barrel remains nowhere near its mid-$80s zenith of 2008, it broke $27/bbl at both hubs in December, a 17.5% jump over November and a 53.3% increase over December 2015 at Mont Belvieu. At Conway, the one-month rise was 18.5%, with a 61.2% year-over-year (yoy) increase.

Fourth-quarter 2016 heated up as well, with the barrel showing a 28.7% gain over the third quarter and a 40.2% rise over fourth-quarter 2015 at Mont Belvieu. Conway’s increases were 37.2% over third-quarter 2016 and 46.7% above fourth-quarter 2015.

But remember that 2015’s late-year downward trend continued into early 2016, so to better gauge the barrel’s advance over the year, consider these figures:

  • The fourth-quarter 2016 barrel at Mont Belvieu was 63% above the first-quarter barrel—Conway’s uplift was 71%;
  • The weekly yoy gain was 64% at Mont Belvieu and 72% at Conway;
  • Last week’s barrel price was 105% higher than the Mont Belvieu weekly low for 2016, set in mid-January—Conway’s difference was 113%;
  • C5+ ended the year on a high that was 77% above its Mont Belvieu low set in February, and 82% over its Conway low, set in January; and
  • Propane cracked 70 cents per gallon (gal) at Mont Belvieu last week for the first time since November 2014.

Not all was sunshine and demand-inducing cold snaps, though. The barrels’ prices in the last week of the year edged up less than 3% at both hubs compared to the butane-driven bounces of the previous week. And margins, except for a tightening for ethane and an increase for propane, rose only modestly.

Still, ethane was up 76% at Mont Belvieu compared to a year ago, bolstered by rising cracking demand and increased exports from Enterprise Products Partners LP’s (NYSE: EPD) Morgan Point terminal. At Conway, the price was up 72%.

Propane was up 82% yoy at Mont Belvieu and 103% yoy at Conway. While that appears to be a swell gift, the rising price raised some concerns with En*Vantage.

“We feel that export margins will be severely squeezed if Mont Belvieu propane prices continue their upward climb,” the analysts wrote. “Already there are reports that some Asian ethylene plants are switching to cracking naphtha from LPGs because butadiene prices are soaring in Asia and propane prices are becoming too expensive to crack.”

Both butane and isobutane closed the year above $1/gal, well above year-ago prices in the 50-cent range at both hubs.

Storage of natural gas in the Lower 48 declined by 49 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in the week ended Dec. 30, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported. The decrease, below the Bloomberg consensus of 77 Bcf, resulted in a total of 3.311 Tcf. The figure is 9.9% less than the 3.675 Tcf figure at the same time in 2015 and 0.6% below the five-year average of 3.332 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.

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