Frac Spread: O Say, Can You Seaborne, Ethane Exports?

Ethane prices bounced back this week, perhaps cheered by the expectation that the first ethane export cargo would depart the U.S. Gulf Coast for customers in Europe.

It didn’t happen.

The dock at Enterprise Products Partners LP’s (NYSE: EPD) terminal on the Houston Ship Channel near Morgan’s Point, Texas, is not quite ready, TradeWinds reported. The 27,500-cubic meter JS Ineos Insight, parked near the entrance to the channel since Aug. 1, departed just before midnight on Aug. 3 for Marcus Hook, Pa., according to data on the MarineTraffic website, presumably to load ethane for delivery to Rafnes, Norway.

But that is just a bump in the sea lane. RBN Energy LLC, in a report this week, said it expects Morgan’s Point to be by far the largest handler of U.S. ethane exports, even after completion of Kinder Morgan Inc.’s Utopia pipeline from Ohio to Sarnia, Ontario.

RBN attributes ethane’s rally, which peaked in late June, to rumors that shippers were building up inventories in anticipation of the Morgan’s Point terminal startup. When it is ready to go, however, the new facility’s location further down the channel near La Porte, Texas, will allow its customers to avoid some congestion and downtime, giving it an advantage over other docks on the channel operated by Targa Resources Corp. (NYSE: TRGP) and Enterprise.

Jefferies analysts mused about the Morgan’s Point effect on price, too, and noted that May’s ethane rejection of about 272,000 barrels per day (Mbbl/d) was 20% below April’s 339 Mbbl/d and 43% less than the roughly 480 Mbbl/d rejection in May 2015, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

Jefferies expects ethane rejection to increase only modestly over the next few months as excess inventory is utilized.

Other NGL did not enjoy a bounce this week. The hypothetical 42-gallon (gal) NGL barrel fell 5.4% at Mont Belvieu, Texas, to $18.56 and Conway, Kan., saw a 5.8% falloff to $17.13.

Propane was particularly hard hit in the last week, dropping 9.9% at Mont Belvieu and 12.1% at Conway. It was the lowest level at both hubs since February.

Stronger prices for propane have encouraged buyers to look elsewhere, and some contracts for U.S. export cargoes in July and August were canceled, Jefferies said. However, the analysts said they were heartened by Enterprise’s ability to respond to cancellations with increased exports of polymer-grade propylene and expected other operators to pursue strategies along those lines.

Butane suffered a 5.5% weekly hit at Mont Belvieu and a 6.6% decline at Conway. Isobutane prices gave up less ground: 2.5% at Mont Belvieu and 2.9% at Conway.

C₅₊ fell 5.8% at Mont Belvieu, dropping below 90 cents/gal for the first time since early April. Same for Conway, which saw C₅₊ decrease by 6.5%.

U.S. storage levels for natural gas declined 6 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to 3. Tcf, the EIA reported. That is still 13.4% above the 2.899 Tcf in storage one year ago and 16.4% over the five-year average of 2.824 Tcf.

Joseph Markman can be reached at jmarkman@hartenergy.com and @JHMarkman.