Goldman Sachs hiked its price forecasts for Brent oil saying the world could be facing one of “largest energy supply shocks ever” because of the Ukraine crisis, while Barclays said prices in its worst-case scenario could top $200/bbl.
Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy also said Brent could rise to $200 if Europe and the U.S. banned Russian oil imports.
Goldman raised its 2022 Brent spot price forecast to $135/bbl from $98 and its 2023 outlook to $115 from $105.
More than half of Russia’s March loadings so far were reported unsold and, if sustained, this could represent a 3 million bbl/d fall in Russian crude and product seaborne exports, the fifth largest disruption in a month since World War Two, the bank said in a note.
Russia, the world’s second biggest oil exporter, ships about 7 million bbl/d of crude and oil products.
The U.S. on March 8 banned Russian oil imports in retaliation to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, a decision that is expected to worsen disruptions in the global energy market. Europe has not imposed sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports yet, but many buyers are reluctant to make purchases to avoid becoming entangled in sanctions indirectly.
Shell, among others, said on March 8 that it would no longer buy Russian crude oil and would phase out its involvement in all Russian hydrocarbons.
“In the short term, coping with such a supply shock would require the combined help of global strategic reserves, core-OPEC, Iran and higher prices to reduce consumption,” Goldman said.
Barclays said disrupting most of Russian seaborne crude supplies in its worst-case scenario could push prices above $200, although it did not revise its 2022 Brent forecast saying “the situation remains highly fluid.”
Oil prices climbed above $130 on March 8 on prior to the U.S. would formally announcing its ban on Russian oil imports. Brent crude futures settled on March 8 at $127.98/bbl, 3.9% higher, while WTI crude futures in the U.S. settled at $123.70/bbl, a 3.60% increase.
Hart Energy staff contributed to this report.
Recommended Reading
Surge Closes on Divestment of Alberta Non-Core Gas Assets
2024-12-20 - Surge said it has focused on developing its core Sparky and southeast Saskatchewan crude oil assets, leaving the Alberta non-core assets undercapitalized.
Marketed: ConocoPhillips 5 Well Package in Niobrara Shale
2024-12-19 - ConocoPhillips Co. has retained EnergyNet for the sale of working interest participation in five wells located in Weld County, Colorado.
Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG Closer to FID with Chevron Deal
2024-12-19 - Energy Transfer entered a 20-year agreement to supply Chevron with 2 mtpa of LNG from its Lake Charles LNG export facility, which is awaiting a final investment decision.
Exxon Mobil Completes Purchase of FPSO Offshore Guyana
2024-12-19 - Exxon Mobil Corp. paid $535 million to SBM Offshore for the FPSO, which will operate the unit through 2033.
Marketed: Stapleton Group Gulf Coast Texas Opportunity
2024-10-21 - Stapleton Group has retained EnergyNet for the sale of 51,816 non-producing net mineral acres in Walker, Montgomery and San Jacinto counties, Texas.
Comments
Add new comment
This conversation is moderated according to Hart Energy community rules. Please read the rules before joining the discussion. If you’re experiencing any technical problems, please contact our customer care team.