Haynesville, Permian to Lead Natural Gas Production Growth in April

Despite recent price volatility, natural gas output from key regions including the Permian and Haynesville is expected to grow from March to April, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Chris

Mathews

Hart Energy

Mon, 03/20/2023 - 09:12 AM

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Natural gas output from the Permian and Haynesville is expected to grow in April. (Source: Shuttestock)

Natural gas production in key U.S. basins is slated to grow by over 400 Bcf/d in April, led by gains in the Haynesville and Permian.

Total natural gas production in the Lower 48 is expected to rise to 96.62 Bcf/d in April, an increase of 420 Bcf/d month over month from March, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest drilling productivity report this week.

Despite a supply glut and weaker-than-expected demand that’s shaved more than 50% off Henry Hub prices in recent months, gas production is forecasted to grow from each of the key basins this month, the EIA said.

Production gains in April will be led by the Haynesville Shale, where gas output is expected to rise by 113 MMcf/d to an average of 16.8 Bcf/d.

Associated gas production in the Permian Basin will rise by 93 MMcf/d to an average of nearly 22.5 Bcf/d in April.

Gas output from Appalachia, the leading gas-producing region in the Lower 48, will grow by 74 MMcf/d to an average of 34.95 Bcf/d.

EIA Lower 48 Basin Map — Natural gas output is expected to grow in each of the key regions in the U.S. Lower 48. *(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)*

Henry Hub natural gas prices have collapsed in recent months after averaging $6.42/MMBtu in 2022. Henry Hub prices are expected to average around $3/MMBtu this year before rising to an average of $3.89/MMBtu in 2024, according to EIA forecasts.

Regardless of near-term price volatility, the EIA expects natural gas production to grow through 2050 in order to meet global demand, the agency said in its latest Annual Energy Outlook published March 16.

U.S. gas output is forecasted to grow to between 115 Bcf/d to 121 Bcf/d by 2050, depending on the full impacts of clean energy tax credits authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act last year.

Oil outlook

While the Haynesville will lead gas production growth, the prolific Permian Basin will lead crude oil production gains from March to April.

Crude output from the Lower 48 will grow by 68,000 bbl/d to more than 9.2 MMbbl/d in April, the EIA said.

Oil production in the Permian is forecasted00 to grow by 26,000 bbl/d to over 5.6 MMbbl/d next month. Meanwhile, crude output from the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana will rise by 18,000 bbl/d to nearly 1.2 MMbbl/d.

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Chris Mathews

Chris is the Senior Reporter of Shale and A&D at Hart Energy. He covers the North American upstream shale energy industry and the acquisition and divestiture deal markets.

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