Tropical storm Francine is expected to disturb energy markets as it strengthens into a possible hurricane, threatening oil and LNG operations along the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). 

Natural gas futures have taken a hit and Shell has already paused operations at its Perdido and Whale offshore platforms in the GoM. 

U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Sept. 9 on expectations a storm forecast to hit Louisiana later this week will cut demand by causing power outages and reducing the amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants.

In the Atlantic Basin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) projected a demand destroying hurricane will form in the Gulf of Mexico on Sept. 11 before hitting Louisiana, home to three of the nation's seven big LNG export plants.

Since over 75% of U.S. gas production comes from big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, analysts said hurricanes were more likely to reduce prices by cutting demand through power outages and knocking LNG export plants out of service.

Twenty years ago, when 20% of nation's gas came from the federal offshore Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes could boost prices by threatening supplies. But, now that offshore region produces just about 2% of the country's gas.

The Sept. 9 price decline came despite forecast for more demand next week than previously expected and higher LNG feedgas so far this month.

Another factor that has weighed on gas prices for much of this year was the tremendous oversupply of gas left in storage after a mild winter.

There was still about 10% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year even though injections have been smaller than usual in 16 of the last 17 weeks. 

Analysts said those small weekly builds happened mostly because several producers cut output this year after spot prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark fell to a 25-year low in the spring and have remained relatively low since.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.3 cents, or 2.8%, to $2.212/MMBtu at 9:29 a.m. EDT (1329 GMT).

On Sept. 6, the contract closed at its highest level since July 12 for a second day in a row.

Supply and demand

Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.4 Bcf/d so far in September, down from 103.2 Bcf/d in August.

Meteorologists forecast weather across the U.S. would remain mostly near normal through Sept. 12 before turning warmer than usual from Sept. 13-24. Energy traders, however, noted that warm weather in mid-September would only average around 75 F (23.9 C), compared with a daily average of 79 F in mid-August.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 100.7 Bcf/d this week to 101.2 Bcf/d next week. The forecasts for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Sept. 6.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 Bcf/d so far in September, up from 12.9 Bcf/d in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a three-month high of 13.6 Bcf/d on Sept. 8.

Looking ahead, Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-Bcf/d Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland will likely be shut for about three weeks of routine annual maintenance around Sept. 20, according to the plant's history and notices to customers.

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