Amidst civil unrest and economic chaos, oil and gas companies doing business in Indonesia believe prospects are positive, mid- and long term, industry spokesmen and a consultant agree. "Of the energy firms there, some are the shrewdest players that I've seen in the oil business anywhere. I think it is because many of these relationships go back to before World War II," says James Clad, director of Asia Pacific Energy Service for Cambridge Energy Research Associates, and an Asian studies professor at Georgetown University in the Washington area. International companies doing business in Indonesia have a sense about not getting in the line of fire politically, and they have seen turmoil in Indonesia before. "These are people who understand and who have worked through periods of crisis before. After all, Indonesia has not been plain sailing and has patterns of rough moments, most notably in the mid-1960s." Indonesia is depending on oil and gas revenues to help resolve its problems. Domestic bank debt is more than 75% of Indonesia's gross domestic product; in contrast, the U.S. savings and loan crisis more than 10 years ago involved about 2.5% of the U.S. GDP. "It strikes me that the government of Indonesia is going to put all the emphasis it can into assuring that existing revenue streams stay on tap." Indonesian Mines and Energy Minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono recently said that the government expects to receive about US$8 billion in oil and gas revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2000, compared with an earlier estimate of 70% as much. The estimate was raised because of higher oil prices. Depending on prices, oil and gas revenue can be up to 20% of Indonesia's income. -Paula Dittrick

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