U.S. crude oil prices will average between $80/bbl and $100/bbl next year, investors attending a Barclays conference this month estimated, suggesting a stronger outlook than future prices suggest.
Oil futures for October traded at $85 a barrel on Sept. 19, with the outlook for 2023 at about $79 a barrel. Prices had traded over $100 a barrel earlier this year on Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions. Oil has cooled on concerns of an economic slowdown.
Separately, the Bank of America today boosted its 2023 U.S. oil price forecast by $4 a barrel to $94 a barrel, pointing to what it called a "modest but demonstrable production cut at the last OPEC+ meeting."
The producing group in early September agreed to cut output by 100,000 bbl/d, or 0.1%, of total global demand, amid worries of oversupply and fears of a weakening global economy.
In the Barclays surveys, some 56% of participants at its CEO Energy & Power Conference indicated they expect global oil inventories to be lower over the next 12 months.
Supply chain disruptions and inflation continue to roil fossil fuel production. Slightly over half of survey respondents said they expect U.S. oil output to grow by 500,000 bbl/d to 700,000 bbl/d between the fourth quarter of this year and next.
Shale producers EOG Resources Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co. earlier this month predicted U.S. oil production will lag behind expectations, with the latter calling for growth of roughly 500,000 bbl/d this year and less next year.
The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, expects oil production to average 12.6 MMbbl/d next year, up about 800,000 bbl/d from forecasts for 11.8 MMbbl/d this year.
Barclays' survey participants anticipate oilfield inflation to remain a problem, with 68% suggesting costs will jump by 10% to 20% in 2023.
Barclays did not disclose the number of participants in the survey.
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