BP’s annual Energy Outlook is always a fascinating read. The breadth of its coverage of many aspects of this industry we work in and how it fits into the bigger picture is a valuable resource for us all. But some of the blinkered mainstream coverage that followed the Outlook’s release, sounding an early death knell for the fossil fuels sector, has been naive in the extreme.

Let’s have a quick review of the statistics: Renewables (including biofuels) will continue to be the fastest-growing energy source, according to BP, supplying a bigger share of the world’s primary energy needs than nuclear by 2025. That is impressive growth, for sure.

Sources such as wind and solar will increase at an average of 6.4% a year to 2035 compared to natural gas, which is the fastest-growing fossil fuel, at 1.9%, according to the Outlook.

Interestingly, oil barely warrants a mention by BP itself, scraping into the press release in the final paragraph. But the key words, as far as the E&P business is concerned, are in the release’s last sentence: “Fossil fuels remain dominant in the energy mix in 2035, with oil, gas, and coal each with 26% to 27% of market share, while nuclear, hydro, and renewables each have about 5% to 7%.”

It sounds like a massive shift in the landscape when newspapers note that renewable energy demand will grow almost 200% over the next two decades, but the counterpoint is simply this: Renewables, including biofuels, will only account for around 7% of total demand in 2035 compared to 2% today. It also is forecast that 14% of world electricity supply will come from renewable sources, up from 5% in 2012.

The dominant force remains oil (and gas and coal). Even as the global fuel mix necessarily continues to evolve, fossil fuels will still hold the sobering responsibility of meeting the vast majority of the world’s energy needs.

In contrast to renewables, oil is the equivalent of the brainy child sitting at the back of the class, quiet and unnoticed. With the slowest predicted growth of all the major fuels to 2035 (only 0.8% annual growth), it quietly puts its head down and manages to achieve a forecast liquids demand that will be nearly 19 MMb/d higher at 109 MMb/d in 2035 than in 2012. This will be fueled by non-OECD transport and largely supplied by the exploitation of new shale gas, tight oil, and deepwater reserves.

So as an industry, let’s not even begin to think we’re on our way out here. There are decades of work left to be done, hundreds of billions of dollars to be invested, and plenty of fuel left in the tank for the upstream business.

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