A year ago this month, Hurricane Ike swept through the Gulf of Mexico, hitting the offshore oil and gas industry hard. A few days later, a financial crisis erupted on Wall Street and spread throughout the world like a swine flu.

But in recent weeks, it feels like it might be safe to poke your head out of the storm cellar.

Everyone from the president and Bernanke to financial columnists is seeing a recovery by year-end. Rising energy demand is supposed to follow. In August, a Barclays research note said, “There is mounting evidence that the recession is over and that a phase of rapid growth in OECD industrial metals and energy demand is imminent.

“In the U.S., an upswing in industrial output, consumer sales, and a turn in the wholesale-goods inventory argue for an impending sharp change in the underlying dynamic of oil demand….We are forecasting an upswing in global oil demand from Q2 into Q4 that is seven times higher than the forecast of the International Energy Agency…”

It could be none of these views is right, but I like to think Barclays is right on.

The biggest threat now is that Congress is back in session. The biggest opportunity is that the Senate could try to rectify the flaws in the House’s energy bill, perhaps by decoupling cap-and-trade legislation from renewable fuels mandates, as some Democratic senators are suggesting.

But there is good news. While you were on vacation, the campaign to encourage more natural gas use, as promoted by Boone Pickens, IPAA and API, appears to have won gas “a seat at the table” when energy is discussed. Some powerful, yet unexpected, voices are now saying yes, natural gas must be more of the solution. Both the House and Senate have before them bills to boost investment in gas-powered vehicles.

Two liberal groups that normally would not be kind to the oil and gas industry have now seen the light. In a communiqué in August following a clean-energy summit in Las Vegas, they touted gas. “The Center for American Progress and the Energy Future Coalition propose a number of policies that would increase the use of natural gas…it should play a larger role in our energy mix….using gas will enhance our economy…it could be the basis for new clean energy technologies such as wind-gas hybrid electricity plants, carbon capture and storage, and natural gas transportation fuels…”

But watch out. That same missive says the Environmental Protection Agency should undertake a comprehensive analysis of the impact of fracing, gas flaring and production. It cited recent controversial studies that claim Barnett shale production emits as much pollution as two 750-megawatt, coal-fired power plants, and more smog-forming compounds than cars do in the Dallas-Fort Worth region!

The groups want EPA to do a lifecycle greenhouse-gas analysis of the process of producing natural gas. And, they ask that the EPA’s voluntary Natural Gas STAR program, where operators are encouraged to capture produced-methane emissions and sell them, be obligatory. Here we go again.

Operators are already longing for normalcy, says Michael Hall, E&P analyst for Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., reporting on what he heard at The Oil and Gas Conference in Denver in August, hosted by EnerCom Inc.

“After a shell-shocking 12-18 months, producers seem to be expecting and preparing for a coming environment of ‘normalcy.’ This should mean more offense and less defense, and a more aggressive use of capital in an effort to restart growth engines,” Hall says. “In most of our one-on-ones, companies were looking to use an expected improvement in the strip as an opportunity to hedge and to firm up plans for 2010—particularly the small-caps. With the group generally inventory-rich, as one would expect, operators seem eager to prove up acreage positions.”

Working through the large shale positions takes lots of money, but on second-quarter conference calls, speakers seemed upbeat, predicting further production growth this year and next. Anadarko Petroleum Corp. said the Marcellus works at $2.50 per Mcf. Forty-acre spacing and pad drilling are coming there, just as these practices have propelled activity in other resource plays.

BG Group, the British natural gas powerhouse already active in 27 countries, has joined the U.S. unconventional-gas party, coming into the Haynesville/Bossier and Cotton Valley tight sands. It just closed its $1.1-billion alliance with Exco Resources Inc., with $400 million of that to be paid as a carry of 75% of Exco’s future costs to develop the Haynesville. It takes big guns.

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