DALLAS—Veteran U.S. political analyst Karl Rove did a quick hands-up poll among oil and gas leaders, getting results with zero margin of error on Oct. 3.

“How many of you are happy with the state of American politics today?” he asked the more than 400 attendees in Hart Energy’s Energy Capital Conference in Dallas. “Raise your hand.”

None did.

Then “how many of you are confident that no matter what happens [in November]—no matter who wins—we can have confidence in them [and] we're going to be okay?”

Again, no hands up.

That sentiment, Rove said, is what he’s finding is the state of U.S. politics today—and that each presidential candidate needs to pay attention to.

The lack of hands is “part of the reason why I feel good—because the system reacts to us and our politics is broken. [It’s] been broken in the past. [It’s] been worse,” he said.

He pointed to events between the Eisenhower and Reagan administrations.

“If we admit it, some of us are old enough to remember the ’60s and ’70s. … You think politics are brutal today. They hated each other's guts,” he said.

Perfectly imitating former President Donald Trump, Rove launched into a stand-up routine, particularly mimicking what the candidate has been saying about Haitian immigrants in Ohio that locals there have debunked.

Trump’s tariffs during his administration hurt U.S. voters, Rove said. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has been marked with inflation.

“What happens when the politics is broken is the American people get upset and leaders respond,” he said.

“And I'm seeing this. I'm seeing this in members of Congress and governors who are saying, ‘We can do better and our people, our country, deserve better and we're going to be a big part of leading that—whether we like it or not.’”

The campaigns underway now are “a battle over change versus more of the same.”

Vice President Kamala Harris “cannot win if she is seen as the continuation of Joe Biden. Two thirds of the American people think the country is going in the wrong direction,” he said.

If Harris “is seen as one of those people who is taking the country in the wrong direction, she's cooked.”

Meanwhile, at Trump headquarters, “Trump has got to try and keep her pinned down to ‘She's more of the same.’

“But that requires discipline and if there's one thing that's in short supply on the Trump campaign—particularly on the part of the candidate—it's discipline,” he said.

Trump’s greatest challenge in the September presidential-candidate debate was to resist being provoked.

“He knew what was coming, and he couldn't help himself. They [the Harris campaign] said, ‘We're going to provoke him.’ And when they did, he let himself get provoked.”

Currently, Rove sees the GOP taking the Senate; the Democrats, the House.

No matter what, the margins will be narrow, he said.

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