Although he's not threatening the U.S. with military action, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is a person the U.S. needs to take very seriously in regards to his effect on national security.

"For Chavez, Venezuela is too small. He needs a global stage," Inter-American Dialogue vice president Michael Shifter told World Affairs Council of Houston members recently. "This is where the U.S. needs to take him seriously."

Shifter has written articles concerning U.S.-Latin American relations and views Chavez not only as the most influential leader in the region but as an individual whose popularity and power put him in a position to severely affect the policy of other countries.

"He finds himself in a very favorable position and he's spending his money at home, and in the U.S., to build a constituency to support his political agenda."

The state-run oil company PDVSA has not fared very well under his leadership. "A lot of the investment required to keep things running isn't there," Shifter said. "He won't be able to keep projects going." Conventional wisdom suggests that, at this rate, in another five years, the country will start to face serious economic issues, he added.

Chavez is busy trying to become president for life, and he recently pulled out of the Andean Community of Nations assembly because fellow member states Peru and Colombia have foreign trade agreements with the U.S. Chavez does not like ethanol partnership between the U.S. and Brazil, Shifter noted, but he cannot afford to alienate the U.S. as an oil buyer in the long run.

The U.S. response to Chavez has not been very effective, according to Shifter, who likens it to being a deer in the headlights and having no idea how to act. "There is complete confusion about what the Chavez issue is and what to do about it."

This has led to no consistent action taken on the part of the U.S., and often the action that is taken isn't successful.

He suggests that, unlike in the past, the U.S. not seek to enlist other Latin American countries to stand up against Chavez. It hasn't happened, and it's not going to happen because they need the oil too much.

The U.S. also shouldn't fall for Chavez's attacks when he baits the country, because it just gives him more political ammunition. The best way for the U.S. to effectively undercut the power of leaders such as Chavez is to show more interest in Latin American as a whole and not just be concerned only when situations escalate there and create problems here.

"The U.S. can do a better job of being engaged in this hemisphere," Shifter said.

Chavez's rule will ultimately be fruitless for Venezuela, he added. The country currently subsidized 100,000 barrels of oil per day to its biggest ally, Cuba, but the relationship between Chavez and Castro is not exactly warm.

In the country itself, Chavez has been shown to have no real answers for the problems he addresses, and the people who elected him, while enjoying a decrease in poverty, have not experienced an increase in employment. Currently, some 60% to 65% of Venezuelans live in poverty. Crime, likewise, "is off the charts."

"Within Venezuela, there are some serious soft spots and weaknesses that will come back to bite him. He's not providing the basis for a sustaining dynamic economy," Shifter said.

Comments