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It only seems like it took forever. Soon after this issue of Oil and Gas Investor went to press, the historic first cargoes of Lower 48 U.S. LNG were loaded onto the Energy Atlantic at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass liquefaction terminal on the Louisiana coast.
It hasn’t been easy. With international LNG priced at crude oil levels, the cross-commodity arbitrage favoring LNG dissipated in 2015. And there is the prospect of a vastly oversupplied global market as multiple countries scramble to cross the finish line with new LNG facilities in the next half decade. In January, the ConocoPhillips-led Australia-Pacific LNG shipped its first cargo, joining two other new Aussie export facilities that began LNG shipments in second-half 2015.
The original concept to export natural gas from North America called for LNG to begin flowing out of the U.S. and Canada by 2015. The U.S. effort, exemplified by Cheniere, came within a couple weeks of meeting expectations. Progress in Canada has been glacially slow, however, and its efforts may be too late to gain a profitable seat at the global LNG table.
By 2025, U.S. LNG exports could reach 12 Bcf/d, alleviating the crushing oversupply of natural gas that has kept domestic prices at stunningly low levels since the disruptive transformation that accompanied the shale gas revolution.
Cheniere’s Sabine Pass liquefaction facility will spread 3.8 Bcf/d of that supply across six trains with Cheniere’s additional facilities coming online in Corpus Christi, Texas, in 2018, and two other facilities coming onstream in the next six years. In a competitive international LNG market, depressed domestic gas prices should allow the U.S. to continue to be the low-cost exporter.
The debut of U.S. LNG exports is a captivating story. Behind the headlines, a less-recognized angle involves Cheniere’s innovative approach to sourcing domestic gas for international customers, which is positive news for producers in oversupplied gas basins.
Previously, the standard midstream model involved producers making commitments to support pipeline facilities before the midstream sector began construction. With dramatic commodity price swings the norm, that led to an accordion effect, creating temporary bottlenecks as oversupply in basins lagged infrastructure build-out to meet demand at power plants, petrochemical industrial facilities and utilities.
Cheniere, which faces an obligation to fulfill 20-year export contracts and needs to secure reliable supply, is expanding the market for natural gas by having its export facilities serve as the end-use customer while simultaneously investing in new pipeline infrastructure to tie domestic gas markets to its international clientele.
The firm’s strategy of functioning as both an exporter and midstream transporter brings domestic producers the opportunity to preserve balance-sheet integrity in economically tough times by avoiding the liability overhangs that accompany the traditional producer nomination process. Cheniere has been signing one- to seven-year contracts with domestic oil and gas producers at a 10% discount to Henry Hub.
Cheniere’s approach enables it to establish a delivery program that’s set before each new contract year. The company knows how many cargoes will ship to markets in Europe, Asia or South America and can schedule loadings into windows that narrow from a year to 90 to 30 days and closer, as vessels arrive at terminals. Daily flow rates into export terminals won’t fluctuate, because the terminals will continually produce LNG for international customers and liquefaction facilities will have enough onsite storage to cover short-term vagaries in shipping schedules.
Which domestic gas markets will benefit? Cheniere’s first pipeline, Creole Trail, connects its Sabine Pass liquefaction facility to multiple pipelines from the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, while a second pipeline will connect the liquefaction plant under construction in Corpus Christi to pipelines supplying gas from the Midcontinent and eventually to gas produced in West and South Texas. Both Cheniere pipelines will open additional outlets for Haynesville and Fayetteville natural gas as well.
Cheniere is currently signing contracts with producers in Oklahoma’s Scoop and Stack plays to deliver gas via a planned pipeline that, through interconnects, would move gas to either the Sabine Pass or the Corpus Christi liquefaction plants.
LNG won’t be a silver bullet for an oversupplied domestic gas market. But it will be one of multiple solutions that encompass electric power generation and transportation, offering hope to domestic gas producers.
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