It is the cusp of the new year as I write this. The celebrations will be over and 2003 begun when you read it. That transition period should be a time for reflection and I gave it a try.

I got off to a bad start by opening the paper this morning. On the front page, below the fold, readers were treated to a computer-simulated model of a terrorist attack on Houston. According to the article in the Houston Chronicle, a suitcase-size nuclear device detonated downtown would level the city center and kill about 130,000 persons. Fallout born eastward by the wind along the bayou and ship channel would kill about 10% more of those in its stream and sicken thousands more. Turning the pages to find relief, I observed that rioting was still in full swing in Venezuela, American flags were being ripped apart in demonstrations in Korea, a war against Iraq looked as likely as ever and, perusing the business section, that there was no end in sight to the economic stagnation that plagues the global economy. Since it was just a little after 7 a.m. when I finished the paper, it was much too early to start drinking. So I started musing.

Yeah, 2002 wasn't much of a year, but then neither were 1939, 1940, 1941, 1942, 1943, 1944, 1945, 1952, 1953, 1968, 1969 and a whole bunch more. And on a more personal level, things weren't all that bad in 2002. Most of my friends are still alive, and most still employed. Most seem in a relatively good mood. I think that they - in fact most of us - have come to some kind of terms with the new, overburdening sense of impending catastrophe.

Hey, if you look, there are more good things. Rap music still won't go away, but there is a resurgence of interest in big bands, the Beatles and jazz. The French still make good wine, as do the Californians, Australians, South Africans and a host of other folks. Aberdeen in bloom is still a heart-warming sight. E-mail still takes more of my time than it is worth, but I recently found out I am still on Tom Bowles' joke list, and Tom Sommers still keeps me on his too. The old car starts every morning, mostly, and I can still put fuel in it. The Petroleum Museum in Midland is still a great destination, as is the Ocean Energy Center in Galveston. Lake Louise still may be the prettiest place on earth, and nearby Calgary one of the best places to visit. There are still world-class eateries in New Orleans and Lafayette. You can still get to almost any spot in the world within 24 hours, and cheaply. Despite religious, political and military fanaticism on all sides, most of the Earth's population is becoming a closer community. And I saw a new Aston Martin Vantage on the street the other day.

Closer to home, no major disaster in the upstream industry in 2002 springs readily to mind. Oil prices remained stable. A host of new technologies were introduced or improved in 2002. The industry's environmental performance continued to improve, even if the extreme environmental element didn't disappear.

I guess, all in all, last year was a mixed blessing for me and a lot of folks I know. The industry didn't recover, and we all sure wanted it too. But it didn't fall off the face of the earth either. The specter of terrorism hung over each of us, but we found a way to cope. I would rather have had a better year - say a 1980, when we couldn't do anything wrong - but given the options, a replay of 2002 might not be the worst thing that could happen in 2003. Happy New Year.


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