Murphy Oil Corp. share prices slid on the New York Stock Exchange Jan. 30 following fourth-quarter 2024 results that fell short of analysts’ expectations by 6%—an 11,000 boe/d miss.

The company struggled due to weather, snafus in deepwater Gulf of Mexico and an underperforming Eagle Ford Shale pad.

“4Q production averaged 175 mboe/d, lagging our estimate of 185 mboe/d and consensus of 186 mboe/d,” KeyBank Capital Markets analysts Tim Rezvan and Jonathan Mardini said in a Jan. 30 report.

Murphy shares on the NYSE closed down 6.3% at $27.34 on Jan. 30 compared to $29.18 the day before.

Analysts cited difficulties in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and other offshore assets as reasons for the earnings miss, KeyBank said.

“We come away disappointed with execution and the 2025 outlook and wonder if sufficient conservatism has been applied to 2025 guidance, given challenges seen offshore and onshore in 2024,” analysts Tim Rezvan and Jonathan Mardini said in the report.

Across unoperated assets, the company experienced 10,800 boe/d of production impacts, including 5,600 boe/d of unplanned downtime across operated assets and 2,800 boe/d across non-operated assets.

In the GoM, Murphy cited a mechanical issue at the Khaleesi well and an offshore rig delay, as well as bad weather, according to Murphy’s Jan. 30 earnings report.

In the Eagle Ford, a revised completion design on a four-well Catarina pad—the only pad turned to sales in the quarter—ended up less successful than anticipated, leading to 1,900 boe/d of lower performance, the company said.

For 2025, Murphy plans to drill 34 operated wells and 24 non-operated wells in the shale play, and anticipates bringing 35 operated wells and 28 non-operated wells online.

Despite the misses, Murphy looks poised to rebound in 2025, analysts said.

“As we assess the longer-term outlook, we see an attractive and sustainable 4.5% dividend yield, a transformational oil growth asset in Vietnam, and an improving outlook for Canadian natural gas as LNG exports begin in the near-term future,” the KeyBank analysts said. “We believe these factors should limit downside today in [Murphy’s] shares and create an entry point for deep-value oil investors.”

In fourth-quarter 2024, the company discovered significant oil reserves offshore Vietnam at the Hai Su Vang-1X exploration well in Block 15-2/17 in the Cuu Long Basin 40 miles offshore. Hai Su Vang-1X was drilled to total depth of 13,124 ft in 149 ft of water and encountered approximately 370 ft of net oil pay from two reservoirs.

Murphy subsidiary, Murphy Cuu Long Tay Oil Co. Ltd., is the operator of the block with 40% working interest (WI). PetroVietnam Exploration Production Corp. Ltd. holds 35% WI and SK Earthon Co. Ltd. holds the remaining 25%.

Murphy has allocated $145 million to its 2025 exploration program and plans to drill two operated exploration wells in the GoM, one well in Cte d'Ivoire, the Lac Da Hong-1X exploration well in Vietnam and a Hai Su Vang appraisal well in Vietnam.

In Canada, the company plans to drill eight wells and bring online 10 operated wells in the Tupper Montney. In the Kaybob Duvernay, Murphy plans to drill six and bring online four operated wells.

Murphy earnings

Murphy reported $50 million of net income, or $0.34 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2024, Murphy reported $407 million, or $2.7 per diluted share.

EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $315 million. Full-year 2024 EBITDA was $1.4 billion.

Capex for the fourth quarter totaled $186 million. Accrued capex for the full year totaled $953 million.

Murphy also announced an 8% increase to its quarter cash dividend to approximately $0.33 per share, $1.30 annualized.

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