The general consensus among the baseball cognoscenti is that Babe Ruth is the greatest to ever play the game. This despite the fact that he no longer holds the single season home run record or the all-time home run record.

The man who broke his record as the all-time home run king, Hank Aaron, had incredible consistency. Though he never hit 50 or more home runs in a season, he also never hit less than 10 homers in a season in a career that spanned 23 years. That incredible consistency allowed Hammerin’ Hank to pass the Babe.

A similar level of consistent output is resulting in natural gas solidifying its hold as the dominant source of power generation in the U.S. Natural gas took the crown from coal in 2016 and the gulf between these two energy sources is widening with every passing year.

According to a recent MorningStar Research report, “Natural Gas is Still King,” natural gas increased its share of the power generation stack by 3% to 35% in 2018 while coal’s share of the power generation stack fell by 3% to 27% over the same time frame. Renewable power sources increased their market share by 1% to 9%, but still trailed nuclear at 19%.

The continued growth of natural gas power plants resulted in a 3.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) increase in natural gas consumption in 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Overall gas consumption rose by 10% for the year for a record average of 82.1 Bcf/d.

Weather patterns helped support some of this consumption with very cold temperatures in early 2018 resulting in increased heating demand and temperatures that hit monthly average highs throughout the summer increasing cooling demand. This resulted in a record consumption level of 39.9 Bcf/d of natural gas in July, which was followed closely by 38.6 Bcf/d of natural gas in August.

These trends are expected to continue with more than 6,000 megawatts of coal and nuclear plant retirements and 6,000 megawatts of new natural gas plants and 16,000 megawatts of wind and solar capacity being added to the generation stack in 2019.

While the outlook for natural gas looks rosy in the near-term, it may very well be that like Aaron—eventually being surpassed as the all-time home run king by Barry Bonds—natural gas is eventually knocked off the throne by a new challenger.

Renewable energy has long been thought of as heir apparent to the power generation throne. Although its share of the generation stack is meager compared to natural gas’ share, several prognosticators expect renewable’s share to surge in the coming years.

“While the overall trend of greater reliance on natural gas with an expansion in renewables is pretty consistent across the country, regional differences exist,” the MorningStar report said. The research firm noted that 8,000 megawatts of wind power capacity is being added in the middle portion of the country. Solar capacity is expected to increase by about 3,000 megawatts in the South Atlantic and by about 1,000 megawatts along the Pacific Coast. 

A recent survey by Lloyd’s Register of 792 executives in the renewable energy sector states that renewable energy sources will gain large portions of the energy mix in the next 15 years or so. However, the survey noted that being a greater part of the mix is not the same as pushing natural gas off the top of the power generation stack.

“Achievement of grid parity is not by itself enough in most countries to tilt the energy balance decisively in renewables’ favor. Issues with grid connection, transmission and storage often combine to limit the impact of individual projects,” Lloyd’s Register said.

As technology improves, the price for this new technology also improves in most markets. This holds true for renewables storage, which is improving from both a technological and economic point of view. Some reports have forecast that renewables may catch and surpass natural gas as the most used power generation source by 2035.

These reports may be a bit optimistic, but renewables are beginning to gain momentum as a power source. However, the future isn’t exactly grim for natural gas. Even as storage technology for renewables improves, natural gas will still be a highly utilized part of the energy mix thanks to its lower carbon emission levels than most other non-renewable sources. It will also remain a favored source as a base load power generator.

Just as the Babe’s importance to the game of baseball hasn’t diminished because he was passed by others on the all-time home run list, natural gas’ importance won’t diminish if and when renewables surpass it at the top of the power generation stack.

Comments