The pace at which contractors order new rigs remains one of the most crucial aspects affecting the long-term health of the offshore contract drilling industry.
A recent Lehman Brothers survey asked 60 of the leading players in this ultracompetitive market for their predictions of jackup and floating rig orders for the year.
The list of experts assembled is a veritable "who's who" in the offshore industry, ranging from such legendary figures as Alden "Doc" Laborde - considered a founding member of the offshore drilling industry - to such retired chief executive officers as Hugh Kelly of Odeco, John Laborde of Tidewater and Russ Luigs of Global Marine (Table 1). Others include presidents or chief executive officers of contract drilling companies and their suppliers, chief executive officers of offshore operators EOG Resources and Newfield, senior financial and operating executives at contract drilling companies and their suppliers, and respected rig brokers and consultants.
"While some might believe that such a group of luminaries are participating in our contest due to our offer of a 'nice gift' for the winner and runner-up, in reality, this is a group of highly competitive executives who would like nothing better than to achieve our designation of 'The Smartest Person in the Offshore Industry,'" according to the Lehman Brothers report.
The survey found a considerable divergence of opinion as to how many jackups and floaters will be ordered in 2001.
While some of the divergence can be explained by different opinions of what Sted Garber, chairman and chief executive officer of Santa Fe International, may do in ordering rigs, there also was uncertainty over how aggressive companies would be in ordering rigs without contracts (on spec).
For jackups, the average estimate was eight, with a range of zero to 42. For floating rigs, the average estimate was five, with forecasts ranging from one to 16 units.
The experts also were asked, somewhat tongue in cheek, for their predictions as to the number of new land rigs that would be ordered - hardly a specialist subject for some of the respondents. Those estimates were, some might say predictably, a little more varied.
For further information on this survey or other oil services sector reports, contact James D. Crandell, jcrandel@lehman.com, or Angeline M. Sedita, asedita@lehman.com.

Comments