Several dozen analyst reports plop in my email weekly and I try to read, or at least skim, as many of them as I can. One of the best I ever received was a UBS Securities analysis published early last year, “Where The Puck Is Going,” that compared North America’s midstream buildout to a hockey game.

It brought to mind a memorable quote by hockey’s Great One, Wayne Gretzky, on what makes for a successful player: “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” There’s definitely an application right now between suc- cessfully managing an energy firm and Gretzky’s philosophy: Where is the puck going to be? Good management always looks to the future.

We might think of where the business is right now as intermission after a particularly rough opening pe- riod. The scouts briefed us beforehand on what to expect before the game began: Commodities prices are down, stocks are up. Watch for M&A deals (they don’t get much bigger than Shell and BG Group, which could have major LNG repercussions). Fee-based midstream operations will fare better but declining volumes could still hurt revenues. There are a lot of projects out there that still need to be completed.

Now we're between periods and the coach, well, coaches. The team adjusts for the next period. Wells Fargo Securities alluded to a sports analogy in its April MLP Monthly.

We believe most investors are positioned defensively given the uncertain environment and the expectation that crude prices could go lower in the near term, driven by an increase in U.S. crude inventory levels and the potential for lifting of Iran sanctions,” according to Michael Blum, Wells Fargo senior analyst, and his team. “That stated, some investors may be beginning to position for a rally in commodity prices that would likely drive a rebound (and outperformance) in com- modity and volume-sensitive MLPs (such as certain gathering and processing names).”

And the current game must be played in context with the last game. “We are currently experiencing the hangover associated with a five-year boom supported by high energy prices, rapidly increasing production (and thus infrastructure needs), all-time low interest rates and free access to cheap capital mar- kets,” wrote Bernie Colson, midstream analyst with Oppenheimer & Co. in a first-quarter analysis.

It’s tough to play with a hangover.

I visited with a number of attendees at Hart Energy’s DUG Bakken and Niobrara conference in Denver last month and found them looking ahead—playing to where the puck will be in six or eight months, maybe a year, from now. Greg Hill, COO of Hess Corp., gave a particularly insightful presentation on his firm’s longtime game in the Williston Basin. He had a lot to say about Hess’ midstream infrastructure (Can an IPO be far off?) built to handle its swelling Bakken and Three Forks production and long-term potential.

The coach reminds us of what’s ahead as we take to the ice: “We expect continued volatility as the MLP market grapples with uncertainty regarding the direction of commodity prices and production volumes,” the Wells Fargo report added. “According to our estimates, midstream MLP valuations are pricing in a modest recovery in commodity prices and volumes in 2016.”

Ethan Bellamy, senior analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co., found the DUG conference “consensus remains optimistic about pricing.”

Speaking of the future, our Midstream Business team is changing up after this issue. Closing Bell columnist John Harpole and Associate Editor Deon Daugherty are moving into roles elsewhere. We wish them well.

Comments