Political rhetoric calling for energy independence in the U.S. is both "unrealistic and unnecessary," according to analyst Adam Sieminski, a New York-based member of the National Petroleum Council and chief energy economist for Deutsche Bank.

Although theoretically possible, energy independence would likely have detrimental unintended consequences for the U.S. and be "extremely expensive, environmentally unfriendly, and harmful to key exporting allies" such as Canada and Mexico, he says.

The study suggests the U.S. would benefit more from promoting transparent, market-based approaches to energy via multilateral and international institutions while also integrating U.S. energy policy into trade, economic, environmental, security and foreign policies.

The NPC found that global energy demand will grow as much as 60% by 2030. Supply risks, in the form of political hurdles, infrastructure needs, labor force issues, and carbon emission constraints are seen as accumulating threats to supply security.

NPC's study proposes six core strategies to deal effectively with these issues.

The first strategy proposed encourages demand moderation. Liquid fuels demand is projected to grow to some 27 million barrels per day, according to the report. Demand moderation, in the form of improved car and light truck fuel economy standards, is estimated to save up to 5 million barrels per day usage.

The second strategy addresses resource-supply expansion and diversification. The NPC says "future oil supply will come from a variety of sources, including continued development of known resources, application of enhanced oil recovery, further expansion of unconventional liquids, and development of new discoveries."







Enhanced oil-recovery for marginal wells could add up to 5 million barrels per day, while expanding and diversifying oil supplies could add another 4 million. The combined result would reduce the gap between domestic supply and demand by about one third by 2030, according to the report.

The third strategy suggests a policy to strengthen global trade. Although there is no specific solution suggested other than calling for reliable delivery systems, NPC reports that virtually every study reviewed shows energy consumption is increasing dramatically in developing countries and oil and natural gas production in the U.S. and Europe is declining.

The fourth strategy highlights the need for rebuilding science and engineering talent. Nearly half the personnel in the domestic energy industry will be eligible for retirement within the next 10 years. The workforce "must be replenished and trained if the required systems are going to be completed in a timely and affordable basis."

The fifth strategy concerns building infrastructure and resources and conducting more accurate data studies. Regarding the latter, the NPC notes that "a great deal of the important basic data and information meant to inform decision-makers on these important topics is incomplete, inconsistent, dated or oversimplified." Expanded data collection and analyses by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency is critical to government and the industry to meet future challenges, according to the study.

The final strategy recommends a global regulatory plan to control carbon emissions, taking on some form of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), and should be economy-wide, market-based, visible, transparent and applicable to all fuels. The study "strongly recommends that a high priority be given to establishing a legal and regulatory framework conducive to CCS, and that full-scale clean coal and CCS demonstration projects be undertaken immediately and vigorously."

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