U.S. oil and gas stocks rose while those of renewable energy producers fell on Nov. 4, as traders gambled that even if Joe Biden wins the White House, Democrats’ likely failure to gain control of Congress would kill plans for a clean-energy revolution.

Biden has proposed $2 trillion of spending in the next four years to decarbonize American electricity by 2035 on the way to hitting net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, with plans to expand clean power generation and build a network of charging stations for battery-powered cars.

But the proposals hang in the balance following the Nov. 3 election, which looks set to deny his Democratic party the Senate majority needed to push the program through, especially following the Supreme Court’s recent tilt to the right.

“If Biden prevails but Republicans keep the Senate, they will prevent much of the $2 trillion in green spending Democrats favor,” said Bob McNally, head of consultancy Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to President George W. Bush.

“Court-packing, adding states and large tax hikes on oil and gas companies go out the window,” he added.

The market seemed to agree that Nov. 3’s vote—and the lack of a “blue wave” handing the Democrats control of Congress—would help fossil fuel producers more than their clean energy counterparts.

Shares in Exxon Mobil Corp., which only last week reported its third consecutive quarterly loss, rose on Wednesday along with those of rival Chevron Corp. and the S&P 500 Energy index, which mainly consists of oil and gas companies.

By contrast, the shares of NextEra Energy Inc., a power producer with a growing clean-energy portfolio whose market valuation recently overtook Exxon Mobil’s, were down—as were those in other clean-energy producers. Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems AS, a big supplier of wind turbines to the U.S., also fell.

The election offered voters a stark choice between Biden’s climate-focused plan—including his pledge to rejoin the Paris climate accord from which the U.S. officially withdrew on Nov. 4—and President Donald Trump’s efforts to boost fossil fuels through deregulation and scrapping rules to control pollution.

This year’s coronavirus-induced oil price collapse has scarred the U.S. oil and gas industry, where tens of thousands of jobs have been lost, bankruptcies continue to mount and production has tumbled by about 20%.

The sector’s troubles made energy—and its future in an economic recovery—a theme in the election battle.

Biden said his clean-energy deal would create jobs in everything from solar panel installations to cleaning up abandoned oil and gas wells.

Trump tried to depict his rival as a green radical who would ban fracking, the drilling technique that enabled the shale revolution, at the cost of thousands of jobs in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. Biden has insisted fracking would not be “on the chopping block” if he wins.

The president’s campaign seized on Biden’s comments during one of the pre-election debates that he would “phase out” the oil industry.

“Will you remember that, Texas?” Trump said in the debate. “Will you remember that, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma?”

The oil industry also claimed Biden’s proposals would curb drilling on federal lands in states such as New Mexico, home to part of the Permian Basin, the world’s most prolific oilfield.

In an interview with the Financial Times last month, Scott Sheffield, head of shale driller Pioneer Natural Resources Co., said U.S. oil production would fall by 3% a year if Biden won the White House.

But a modest victory for Biden without a Senate majority will—if confirmed—force him to pursue a more moderate energy agenda, even allowing for compromise, said some oil and gas industry figures.

“The shift toward lower-carbon energy is not over but it’s going to be on a more realistic timeline absent a blue wave,” said Dan Eberhart, head of oilfield services company Canary LLC and a vocal Trump supporter.

“The truth is that Republicans are supportive of policies to reduce carbon emissions,” he added. “But they just think it needs to be done through increased competition and market-oriented policies.”

Lobbyists in Washington said the need to win cross-party support for a climate plan would now dominate Biden’s strategizing around new energy legislation.

“This opens the door to addressing climate change in a way that is not only comprehensive but bipartisan,” said Frank Maisano, a consultant at Bracewell, which represents energy clients in Washington.

“A $2 trillion climate plan will have to take the shape of a $2 trillion jobs plan with some climate thrown in.”

Additional reporting by Leslie Hook and Myles McCormick.

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