Brazil’s oil regulator ANP expects the country to increase oil production from 21% to 52% by 2030, the agency General Director Rodolfo Henrique de Saboia said during a panel session at the Offshore Technology Conference (OTC).

ANP expects Brazil to boost “production to 4 MMbbl/d in 2025 and 5 MMbbl/d by 2030 compared to around 3.3 MMbbl/d currently,” Saboia said May 1 at OTC. Brazil’s natural gas production is expected to reach around 155 MMcm/d in 2025 and 276 MMcm/d in 2030 compared to around 146 MMcm/d currently, he said.

ANP’s long-term production scenario depends on new exploration investments and positive exploration results in the country’s contracted offshore blocks as well as the fiscal attractiveness of the discoveries, Saboia said. Recent exploration results show that Brazil’s pre-salt is not the only important region. New frontier basins such as the Equatorial Basin will also be important over the long-term.

“What we really want is to keep increasing aboveground [resource] competitiveness in order to achieve our main goals,” Saboia said.

Brazil has potential to double its gas production by 2030, Saboia said but the country needs to take all necessary efforts to monetize those volumes.

The latest exploratory results are proof that not only the pre-salt region will be important to Brazil’s long-term production, but also the new frontier basins, like the equatorial margin basins, among others.

Brazil is Latin America’s largest oil producer and poised to be a key source of growth over the medium term. The country is home to most of the offshore projects under development, even outpacing Guyana, and at least 21 offshore production units are estimated to start operation by 2027.

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Saboia said Brazil’s plans to retain its top spot as Latin America’s dominant oil producer haven’t changed. He said strategic energy sector goals remain the same despite the recent change of government, while highlighting four areas in particular: divestment, recovery, geopolitics and marginal discoveries.

Petrobras’ divestment strategy: the state-owned giant’s divestment of non-strategic assets, part of its focus on low-carbon pre-salt barrels, has created opportunities for small to medium producers.

Brazil’s recovery factor: with a rate of just 10% the potential to boost the percent of hydrocarbons recovered represents an enormous opportunity in mature fields.

Geopolitical issues: recent events have accelerated the discussions around the speed of the energy transition and reinforced a sense of urgency for Brazil to explore its resources.

Marginal discoveries: many marginal discoveries in the different environments could be developed if Brazil offers the right incentives to make them viable.

Offshore wind potential

Saboia said that Brazil’s E&P industry is key for a just energy transition — and the country has what it takes to lead the development of its offshore wind power.

“The pathway in the Brazilian sector is that we need more energy and we need less emissions,” Saboia said. “This is the equation that has to be addressed.”

Brazil has an estimated generation potential of 700 gigawatts at water depths of up to 50 m. This is 30x times more than the installed global generation capacity available today, Saboia said.

In order to achieve this potential, the official said Brazil needed to overcome technological, regulatory, cost and infrastructure challenges.

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