Shareholders seem increasingly willing to punish companies who add or enter Midland and Delaware basins deals. What was once a sure bet for stocks has, in some cases, become a dog in 2017.

From last April through July, E&Ps have made nearly $27 billion in Permian Basin deals, according to Moody’s Investors Service. E&Ps have primarily targeted the Midland’s Martin, Glasscock, Howard and Reagan counties in Texas. In the Delaware, Reeves, Pecos and Ward have been the go-to counties.

In 2016, E&P share prices were propped up like a stage-diving rock star, boosted by an average 4% gain the day after a deal announcement.

Whether due to funding mechanisms, acreage costs, the project location or the buyer’s track record, investors’ moods have changed, Robert Clarke, Wood Mackenzie research director for Lower 48 upstream, said at Hart Energy’s September DUG Midcontinent conference.

“Transactions no longer lift stocks,” he said.

Consider Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s June announcement of what was essentially a land swap. Oxy divested $600 million (about 13,000 net acres) for $600 million. In return, it acquired EOR interests in Glasscock. The deal added a net 3,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day to Oxy’s production.

Analysts were generally positive, but Oxy’s stock fell about 2% the day after the transaction was made public to $60.77 from $62.03.

Guy Baber, an analyst for Piper Jaffray, wrote in a report on June 20 that the deal was marginally positive but “investors might question the strategic rationale behind the” transaction, “especially given the seemingly high valuation metrics.”

Or, as Clarke put it, the market may be suffering from a case of “Permian fatigue.”

Last year, Wall Street financed billions of dollars in Permian transactions because oil prices were “constructive,” said Subash Chandra, managing director and senior equity analyst at Guggenheim Securities LLC. E&Ps were restocking after two years without any exploration.

“Really, the main criteria was inventorial renewal and those transactions were premised on location counts based on horizontal and vertical spacing.”

Then, oil prices “triple dipped … and that’s what changed everything,” he said.

In 2017, the fairy tale market ending has turned into a cautionary tale.

Concho Resources Inc. said Oct. 2 it would pay $600 million for a Midland acquisition. That day, Concho stock traded at $128.66. On Aug. 3, the company’s stock price tumbled 8.7% to $117.46. The stock recovered in late September, more than 50 days later.

On Aug. 2, in QEP Resources Inc.’s case, the company spent $732 million for Midland acreage. The day after its July 26 Midland deal announcement, QEP’s share prices fell to $7.93, a drop of 14% from its previous close of $9.27.

Like Oxy’d deal, QEP had set up a deal to divest its Pinedale assets for $740 million to structure the acquisition as a like-kind exchange for the Midland assets.

Capital One Securities responded by moving QEP down in its rankings into the “middle tier,” noting on Aug. 2 that the company lacked near-term catalysts and guidance for the Midland acquisition would not come until the third quarter.

Moody’s Investors Service said the chances for QEP to prop up capex with the Pinedale proceeds had been reversed with the Midland deal. Instead, the company would have to use debt to fund operations, wrote Arvinder Saluja, a senior analyst at Moody’s.

Further, QEP was left reliant on revolver borrowings to fund its drilling and completion budget through 2018, Saluja said. “Negative free cash flow will be further strained, as we expect the company to increase its 2018 capital spending budget to develop the acquired acreage.”

That brings us to late September, when Goldman Sachs analysts reported meeting with E&P management teams in Houston and Dallas.

E&Ps of all sizes, in all basins, seemed to “sing the same tune” of renewed focus on cost structure, measured growth and shareholder returns, analyst Brian E. Kinsella wrote.

That’s been the loudest theme in the latest downturn--but also downturns past.

“Many are still hesitant to believe that there has been a sea change in behavior,” Goldman Sachs said.

Perhaps the same applies to the Permian’s vast richness. It’s a great narrative. But even the most beloved tales, when retold too often, begin to lose their luster.

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